A Year of Unanswered Questions in Pakistan
Another tumultuous year in Pakistan's history passes by as the world looks upon the country with renewed curiosity, fear and bewilderment. Many Pakistanis may feel the same sense of bewilderment, as the Pakistan they once knew drastically transforms before them in plain sight. Pakistan's constant state of flux remains the most consistent element of its evolution.
Benazir Bhutto's assassination in Rawalpindi ushered in 2008 with a bang, and the Musharraf government's botched investigation (with many accusing the government of a cover-up) of the murder was symbolic of the unraveling of Musharraf's reign over the country.
Elections originally scheduled for January 8 of this year were postponed to be held a month later. Concurrently, militants battled with the Pakistani army in the Afghan border region of South Waziristan with casualties being suffered on both sides. The election was met with one of the highest turnouts in Pakistan's history, despite allegations of voter intimidation. But polling day turned out to be far less violent than was predicted.
The two main opposition parties of Pakistan, the late Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan's People Party and formerly exiled ex-PM Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, gained a clear majority in the parliament. A big question that loomed over the election was how the religious parties would fare in the midst of a rising tide of Islamism in the country, the spread of extremism and the fatigue from frequent terrorist attacks. The northwestern regions of the country played largely into this question and the people of the northwest delivered a sharp rebuke to the religious parties, voting-in secular minded parties with a clear majority.
The two victorious opposition parties agreed to form a coalition government in part to bolster their power against President Musharraf who shed his uniform to remain president of the nation. Yusuf Raza Gilani was sworn in as Pakistan's prime minister in March and the coalition government had set their eyes on two major goals: impeaching President Musharraf and re-instating the sacked judges. The latter was to become a thorn in the side of an already uneasy coalition.
The impending prospect of the impeachment of President Musharraf sent a curve ball the way of the Bush administration in Washington, which was already questioning Musharraf's commitment to fighting terrorism as the Taliban was enjoying a resurgence in the regions. The Bush administration, though tepid, still felt they had coddled and nurtured a trusty ally in Pervez Musharraf for their so-called 'war on terror.’ The incoming of a civilian government once again raised fears about Pakistan's nukes falling into the wrong hands, and whether or not the incoming administration in Pakistan would cooperate with America's efforts in the region.
Voices in the press, in Pakistan's civil society and in America's political establishment urged the Bush administration to seize this opportunity to foster a genuine relationship with Pakistan's civil society. This opportunity potentially provided the U.S. with a way to gain public support in Pakistan. The prevailing logic was that if Pakistanis supported this government, and this government played ball with the Americans, then Pakistanis would find it easier to swallow American troops patrolling Pakistan's border regions.
In August, impeachment proceedings against President Musharraf had begun and Musharraf chose to resign under pressure, ending his nine-year rule over the nation. Benazir Bhutto's widower, Asif Ali Zardari - a.k.a "Mr. Ten Percent" - announced his candidacy for the Presidency in the upcoming presidential election scheduled for September. Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif opted to pull out of the coalition government accusing the PPP of not keeping its promise to reinstate the judges sacked by Musharraf.
Zardari emerged victorious in the election which sparked concerns both at home and abroad. The People's Daily, China's government mouthpiece, expressed disappointment reporting that the Chinese premier was concerned about the developments in Pakistan's domestic politics. Not a promising signal from Pakistan's traditional ally, at a time when Pakistan was headed for its own financial crisis and facing depleting reserves. Zardari's first visit to a foreign country as sitting President was to China, and fresh off the heels of the U.S.-India nuclear deal. Zardari went to discuss a wide range of issues including finance, defense, nuclear power and other energy issues. Zardari did not return with the economic assistance he asked for but struck some deals which were hailed as successes. Zardari then went hat-in-hand to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to stem Pakistan's economic crisis and the potential of defaulting on their loans. The IMF ended up helping Pakistan in its hour of need, possibly spurred on by the global crisis which required them to help other nations such as Iceland.
The suicide bombing of the Marriot hotel focused Islamabad's vision on the war against violent extremism. As the Taliban continued to flourish in the border regions, Pakistan was hit with a spate of violence, but the Marriot bombing shell-shocked the government into declaring a more concrete commitment for fighting extremism. The bombing may have helped to provoke a backlash against religious extremism, although polls taken just before the bombing already showed a waning support of al-Qaeda, the Taliban and religious extremism. This was an opportunity for Pakistan to take greater responsibility in its role against violent extremism, and convincing the public (that this is, in fact, Pakistan's war and not just America's) of this was made easier by the appalling incident at the Marriot.
Cross-border incursions by American troops and drone attacks on suspected militant strongholds on Pakistani territory, which resulted in civilian casualties, raised resentment and made it harder for the Pakistani public to support the 'war on terror.' Nonetheless, it seems that the Pakistani public is as committed in the fight against violent extremism as it has ever been.
The attacks in Mumbai at the year’s end delivered a final surprise for the year and one more obstacle to overcome for the Pakistani government. As the Indian government was quick to point its fingers at Pakistan from the get-go, Pakistan immediately went into damage-control. The attackers were all alleged to be Pakistanis; trained on Pakistani soil by Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (a banned militant outfit best known for their militant activities in Kashmir and failed assassination attempts on President Musharraf). The Indian authorities have not shared their intelligence with the Pakistani authorities or allowed any Pakistanis to interrogate the lone surviving attacker. The FBI, after interrogating the suspect for nine hours, came to the conclusion that he was in fact a Pakistani national trained by LeT. They concluded that there was no ISI (Pakistan's intelligence agency) involvement in the plot.
The Mumbai attacks have heightened tensions between the countries and ended the peace process that had been underway. Many see this as India's opportunity to implicate Pakistan and follow that up with strikes on Pakistani soil where they suspect militants are hiding out. The Indian government has been aggressive in its allegations and threats, although a measure of emotion is understandable in the aftermath of such horrific events. But the Pakistani government has acted with a considerable measure of calm and patience.
The Indian Air Force has violated Pakistani airspace in the past few weeks and the Pakistani government has stressed that it was inadvertent, although that would be quite a coincidence. Pakistani F-16's have been hovering over Pakistan's cities in the past few days after news of India's finalized plans to hit strategic locations within Pakistan. Islamabad has shuffled troops along the border with India, thinning its presence on its western border with Afghanistan. The United States now finds itself in a curious position, as it tries to battle the Taliban on Pakistan's border enlisting the help of the Pakistan army, while trying to maintain its solidarity with India in their war against terror. The war hype coming from the Indian government is troubling to say the least, and Pakistan has consistently countered with statements saying they only wish for peace with their neighbors.
2009 presents significant tests for Pakistan's government as Barack Obama's administration comes into power. Obama has given the impression that he will take a no-nonsense stance when it comes to Pakistan's border regions, but has also mentioned the need for greater development initiatives in those concerned regions.
Zardari's cultivation of a meaningful relationship with the new U.S. administration is going to be essential in the upcoming year. If Barack Obama wants to be taken seriously within Pakistan he will have to couple defense support with development in the tribal regions, and Zardari has to take the initiative. Without this support the Pakistani public will be torn between fighting religious extremism and feeling like America's lapdog. A fine balance must be struck.
The heightened tensions with India may put development on the back-burner, but that would be regrettable considering that the lack of development is a major element in perpetuating the complexities of tribal loyalties. Pakistan must continue to be measured in their response to India. Indian strikes on Pakistani territory will be detrimental to India's security, Afghanistan's security and America's efforts against the Taliban.
Domestically, the Pakistani government needs to stop the spread of extremism by registering madressah's (religious schools) and checking their curricula. The Taliban has infiltrated Pakistani cities and swathes of city slums in Karachi have become no-go areas for police, as has been reported in the western media. Balochistan has to be given more attention, as many Taliban use it as a base of operations and could become an extremely volatile region if it is not pursued aggressively.
How Islamabad addresses the roots of extremism will help to determine its success in stemming radicalism in the tribal regions. The military can fight the Taliban and al-Qaeda, but the fact is that they are already there. Pakistan has to be able to prevent these ideologies from gaining support in the first place. If the tensions with India continue Pakistan may fall back into bed with the Taliban, as they have been used as a tool against India. Pakistan must pick a side, and the Taliban’s blow-back has proven to be very dangerous.
The moderate majority of Muslims are clashing with the extremist elements in a struggle for the Muslim identity. Pakistan lies on the fault line of this clash as religious extremists have made Pakistan a preferred destination for their base of operations. The U.S. government has to support Pakistan economically and militarily so that they can gain status as a nation of moderate Muslims. The moderate voices have to ring louder and truer than the extremists who have been speaking for Pakistan and Islam in general for much too long. Opinion polls are heartening in their lack of support for extremism, but heavy-handed American involvement in the region can push that back.
If the Pakistan-India tensions are not resolved then unfortunately Pakistan will be distracted from fighting extremism and developing economically. 2009 will be a testing ground for Zardari, who will need to take the initiative in fighting terrorism domestically with the utmost level of sincerity.
Pakistan cannot afford a war with India. It cannot afford to let extremism spread like wildfire the way it has over the past few years. It cannot afford the economic downturn and the debt crisis. Zardari needs to maintain his calm in the India debacle and the Indian's should understand that destabilizing Pakistan any further will only weaken their borders and therefore their cities. A stable Pakistan is in everyone's interests, but it will continue to teeter on the brink unless the United States, India and China help it meet its most pressing goals.
