Clinton Didn't Snub Australia
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is making Asia her first destination as America's top diplomat. That she is skipping Canberra on a trip that includes stops in Tokyo, Jakarta, Seoul and Beijing is not a slight. But it should provoke some strategic thinking in Australia and the US about the future of a long and unique relationship.
First, it is important to understand that Clinton's trip is more about diplomatic turf in Washington than it is about new diplomatic initiatives.
Canberra need not worry about being left out of a tour that is meant to define a portfolio for the new secretary, who must compete against a bevy of other foreign policy luminaries in the Obama administration.
An unspoken reason for the trip is one of Washington's endless bureaucratic struggles, in this case recovering the China account for the State Department, which had been forced to cede it to the Treasury in the previous administration. The need for this arose as other top-billed diplomatic missions in the Obama administration were assigned to high-profile special envoys. Clinton also must compete for turf against Vice-President Joe Biden, who previously chaired the Senate's foreign policy committee, and a White House national security adviser and UN ambassador who have plenty of their own ideas on foreign policy.
During the long run, Clinton's emerging interest in Asia may spell opportunity for those in Australia and the US who believe our relationship should play a larger role in shaping world events. For starters, Clinton may be a better strategic judge than her predecessor, Condoleezza Rice, who throughout her career devised diplomatic theories that sounded smart in the salons of academe but did not work in the real world. These included believing Beijing would pressure its North Korean ally to disarm, believing Russia would act responsibly if consoled and offered proper deference, and believing a lame-duck administration could resolve the Israel-Palestine issue in its final year, to name just a few.
Clinton's experience on the US Senate Armed Services Committee suggests she is less enthralled with academic constructs and in some instances may be more hard-nosed than her Republican predecessor. Time will tell. A key test will be whether she chooses to be more of a realist on China and places a premium on actions over words. This would be a departure from recent US administrations, which often took at face value Beijing's word that it was helping on matters such as counter-proliferation and North Korea, despite all evidence to the contrary.
The Rudd Government and its loyal Opposition can play a role in shaping this. Australia has been the US's most reliable English-speaking ally on matters of hard power and soft power during the past decade. The interests of both countries would be served were this to be developed further. This could include deeper co-operation to undermine Islamist activity - the antecedent to open jihadism - throughout Southeast Asia and even globally. Such activity may be necessary to prevent the Middle East from figuratively drawing up to Australia's northern periphery and isolating it from Asia with a belt of radical enclaves. Co-operation between two governments with similar views on climate change could help prevent the Europeans from doing anything really crazy in this area when our economies can least afford it. Partnering more makes sense, as Australians and Americans understand how quickly the world's problems can travel great distances to involve us, whether we like it or not.
However, a proactive strategy for Canberra is needed. Diplomats in the US and elsewhere have an unfortunate tendency to take allies for granted and look more for headline-grabbing breakthroughs with adversaries than modest enhancements to existing alliances. Added to this is an error of judgment among many foreign policy analysts in Washington and Asia who overstate the importance of China's economy and understate the military threat posed by Beijing. Throughout the decade, this has meant not enough attention paid to traditional Pacific allies and those who share our values, and too much hand-wringing over a Chinese economy that, in fact, is still smaller than Japan's and will continue to trade with Australia and the US regardless of our diplomats' charm or lack thereof.
By reminding Washington of the similar way we both view the world's threats and opportunities, taking account of the new secretary of state's interest in Asia, and continuing to be a cool-headed ally, Canberra can advance the interests of both Australia and the US. An alliance born in the darkest days of World War II and that persisted and thrived in the years since ought to be at the forefront of shaping the world today.
