Ahmadinejad's Uneasy Road to Reelection

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To the casual observer, it may come as somewhat of a surprise that Iranians rarely vote on foreign policy matters. The nuclear program, relations with the west and the situations in neighboring Iraq and Afghanistan are hardly mentioned, while grievances about the swelling prices of food and housing are at the forefront of discussion. For some time, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has faced harsh criticism over these matters, and his re-election in June is all but assured.

The leading electoral topics in Iran are predominantly economic: unemployment, fuel shortage, corruption and the 30% inflation rate. All of these issues reflect on Ahmadinejad’s economic mismanagement during his time in office. These are the issues that concern ordinary Iranians.

His failed attempt to increase dramatically the minimum wage, drastic diminution of interest rates and spending spree of the oil wealth have caused rising inflation, spiraling property prices and a raise in liquidity to unparalleled levels, making the poor poorer and the rich richer.

Behind Ahmadinejad is the faction of so-called Principlist Conservatives. They are religious hardliners, advocating stricter adherence to the 1979 Islamic Revolution’s ideals, ranging from imposition of a more traditional dress for women, to a more aggressive tone with the west. Their support-base is among Iran’s pious poor, particularly in the southern suburb of Tehran and in rural areas. They also collect most of the military-paramilitary vote.

The Principlists generally face challenges from two other political forces: the so-called Pragmatic Conservatives and the Reformists. Both are primarily concerned with Ahmadinejad’s fiscal policies, along with his often needless antagonizing of foreign powers through inflammatory rhetoric about Israel, the Holocaust and the nuclear program.

For Pragmatic Conservatives, gathered around former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the chief concern is the governing style of Ahmadinejad. They instead promote a more conventional style of leadership based on defending the national interest, akin to Rafsanjani’s presidency.

Their electoral base revolves around pious middle-class citizen who are dissatisfied with the state of the economy, but would not change the political system. They would thus consent to better relations with the world – including the United-Sates – as it would lift burdensome sanctions and improve business conditions.

The last political movement is led by the Reformists, centered on yet another former President, Mohammad Khatami. They advocate reforms such as citizen empowerment and a conciliatory foreign policy. Even amid recent setbacks, they have made a lasting impact on Iran’s political scene.

Their core-support comes from the urban middle-upper class and students across the country. Given that 65% of Iran’s population is under 30, Reformists are still able to change the country’s dynamics. Recognizing that Iranians are discouraged by the lack of labor market opportunities, they have put aside reform claims to campaign on an economic platform.

Obviously, the Principlist candidate will be Ahmadinejad. Even if he has lost the support of some high-ranking Shi’a clerics and faces major criticism, scores of his pious poor supporters still perceive him as a well-intentioned head of state who attempted, but failed, to improve their lives.

For Pragmatic Conservatives, the likely contender is Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, the current mayor of Tehran who unsuccessfully took on Ahmadinejad in 2005. Similar to the President, he got his first political experience as a Revolutionary Guard fighting in the Iran-Iraq war. With his background, Qalibaf can surely attract some military votes. Moreover, since his appointment as the capital’s mayor (replacing Ahmadinejad), Qalibaf enjoys a growing popularity.

Contrary to their presidential drive in 2005, Reformists must try this time around to unite behind a single candidate in order to win. Former President Khatami announced recently that he would run for his old job. However, Mehdi Karroubi, another reform-minded cleric, and former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi are also both competing under the Reformist flag.

Even with talks of one or two withdrawals, this multiple-candidacy strategy is a predicament for Reformists, since this will quite probably - much like in 2005 - divide their votes in the first round and deprive them of a candidate in the second.

An alliance linking Pragmatists and Reformists has never been more probable, precisely because they share several policies and discovered a common denominator in their desire to see Ahmadinejad’s departure. For instance, they believe civic freedoms have been greatly curbed under the president’s watch, creating needless dissatisfaction. Since Iran’s nuclear program is unanimously approved across the political spectrum, no one within those two blocs is expected to give up this ambition, although they will try to convince skeptics abroad that those ambitions are peaceful.

Khatami will likely attempt a deal with the Pragmatic Conservatives in the second round of presidential voting. If his efforts prove successful, Ahmadinejad may have to face the popular ex-president in a head-to-head round of voting.

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