Iran Reaches an Impasse

By Stratfor

A key figure from Iran's political establishment launched a scathing attack Sunday against Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a few days after announcing his candidacy for the June 12 presidential election. Retired Maj. Gen. Mohsen Rezaie -- the longest-serving and best-known former commander of the elite hard-line military force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) -- accused Ahmadinejad of leading the Persian state to a "precipice." Rezaie, who currently serves as secretary of the Expediency Council -- Iran's top political arbitration and strategic planning institution, led by Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani -- called the president's language "adventurous" and said he supports neither "passivity nor adventurism."

We have addressed extensively the mounting opposition that Ahmadinejad faces within the conservative camp that dominates Tehran's clerical regime. We also have discussed the deep divisions, within that camp, between the president's ultraconservative faction and Rafsanjani's pragmatic conservatives. It has been our view that the intra-conservative rift and even the conservative-reformist divide do not hinder consensus-building on foreign policy and national security issues.

However, recent reports indicate that the consensus-building process, led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is indeed being hampered by the intra-conservative rift, which has been exacerbated by the president's maverick policies on both the economy and foreign affairs. An example of the difficulties being created here can be seen in the current election season: While reformist-leaning candidates have announced their plans to seek election, the president has not yet officially declared his candidacy for a second term -- and until Rezaie's entry into the race, no conservative had emerged as a candidate for the June 12 election. The only exception to this would be the candidacy of Expediency Council member and former Iranian Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi, though he is being touted more as a reformist than as a pragmatic conservative.

While Khamenei has tacitly endorsed Ahmadinejad for a second term, many powerful Iranian leaders see the president as a major national security liability. This has led to disputes among the conservatives as to whether they should back Ahmadinejad or put forth a challenger.

This confusion among the conservatives is not limited to domestic politics, however. There is a fundamental disagreement among the rival conservative factions regarding Iran's foreign policy. After nearly three decades of as an international pariah, and despite making some limited gains during that time, Iran is at an impasse. Under the Obama administration, the United States has extended an olive branch to Iran, and this has created a crisis within Tehran.

The ultraconservatives believe that their hard-line position has forced the United States into pursuing a diplomatic approach with Tehran, and feel that they need to maintain their stance in order to extract other concessions. The hard-liners (especially the clerics and the IRGC) also see the process of normalizing relations with the United States as an eventual danger to their domination of the Iranian political system -- hence their emphasis on exercising extreme caution while dealing with Washington.

In contrast, the pragmatic conservatives believe the danger to the regime comes from within. Their view is that the only way Iran will be able to pursue its national security and foreign policy objectives is to take advantage of the opportunity presented by the Obama administration's gesture. Rezaie's comments to this effect are very telling: He said, "I believe the West and the United States need us today. We have to exploit their need to serve our national interests."

The pragmatic conservatives understand that while Iran has managed to survive under a biting sanctions regime, the government has reached the limits of its ability to maintain order at home and pursue its regional ambitions. Rezaie and his allies believe the future of the Islamic Republic depends upon Tehran's ability to reach an understanding with the United States, which will bring an end to sanctions and allow Iran to earnestly develop its energy sector -- particularly its plentiful natural gas reserves -- and reverse its economic decay.

At this stage, it is not clear how the conservatives' debate will be resolved. But what is certain is that the U.S. move toward diplomacy has created a crisis within Iran.