Crisis as Opportunity for Iran's Revolutionary Guards
The domestic political crisis in Iran triggered by the June 12 presidential election grew more complex on Sunday. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad fired Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei, the head of the Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS), Iran's premier intelligence service. Earlier in the day, Iranian media had reported that Ahmadinejad sacked the ministers of culture and labor as well, but a more recent report from Press TV said he had reversed those decisions. Meanwhile, the Fars News Agency reported that the culture minister resigned, saying he could not continue serving because the current government is marred by "weakness."
Mohseni Ejei was MOIS chief throughout Ahmadinejad's first term (and, like the president, hails from the ideological group headed by Iran's most conservative cleric, Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi). His sacking was described by the Mehr news agency as the result of a quarrel with Ahmadinejad over the appointment of First Vice President Esfandiar Rahim Mashaie.
Ahmadinejad, already dealing with the controversy surrounding his re-election, complicated matters when he appointed Mashaie -- one of his own close friends and the father-in-law of his son -- last week. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and others within the president's ultra-conservative faction, who had backed Ahmadinejad strongly against the pragmatic conservative camp during the post-election crisis, bitterly opposed the selection because of comments Mashaie made last year, when he said Iran was a friend of the Israeli people. Ahmadinejad resisted calls to remove Mashaie -- even initial demands from Khamenei -- until the supreme leader forced Mashaie's resignation as first vice president. However, Ahmadinejad reappointed him as an adviser and head of the presidential office.
The domestic political scene in Iran is one of pandemonium. Ahmadinejad, who has yet to be sworn in for his second presidential term, is caught between opponents and allies. The situation is hampering Iran's efforts to deal with crucial foreign policy matters. The Obama administration is beginning to move away from its initial approach of diplomatically engaging the Islamic Republic and toward the possibility of military action if Iran is not willing to play ball. U.S. President Barack Obama has set a September deadline for Tehran to respond to the offer of talks on the nuclear issue. And U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said last week that the internal strife has rendered Tehran incapable of making a decision on the foreign policy front.
Meanwhile, Israel has been engaged in naval activity in the Red Sea, and top U.S. security officials -- including Defense Secretary Robert Gates and National Security Adviser James Jones -- will be meeting with Israeli officials for talks this week. While the Iranian political establishment is caught in an unprecedented internal tug-of-war, the only response from Tehran to the growing external threat came from the military. Maj.-Gen. Mohammad Ali Jaafari, commander of the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), on Saturday threatened to strike at Israel's nuclear facilities if Israel attacked his country.
While Iran's military leadership thus far has supported the supreme leader and the president in the political turmoil, it is likely worried over the civilians' inability to defuse the crisis, especially when external matters are pushing Iran toward a decisive moment. The IRGC's initial thinking after the election was that with its support, Khamenei and Ahmadinejad would be able to contain the unrest and consolidate their power. But with infighting between the president and his allies affecting the country's intelligence service -- at a time when the state needs to be able to secure itself from external threats -- the generals in the IRGC are bound to be worried as never before.
We have noted previously that, even though the IRGC's power is second to that of the clerics, the elite military corps sees itself as the guarantor of national security, and it has been enhancing its power. With the clerical establishment being weakened by the ongoing internal fracas, and with external threats mounting, the military could use this situation to assume a greater role in decision-making. By no means are we forecasting a military coup in Iran; rather, it appears that the military likely will become the strongest stakeholder in the Islamic Republic.
If an Iran dominated by clerics was tough to deal with, expect great challenges if the IRGC begins calling the shots.
