U.S. Must Save Ukraine from Russia

Ukraine is going to be a player or pawn in the global relationship between Russia and the rest of the world this century. Geography, more so than ideology, is resulting in a global focus on Ukraine's geopolitical orientation. Ukraine's strategic East-West geographic location between Russia and Eastern Europe, as well as its prominent location sharing the Black Sea with Turkey and the Caucuses, is a reality that gives the Ukraine ongoing geopolitical significance. Given this location, Ukraine will fall into a sphere of influence and will lean toward either the West or Russia.

If it falls into the Russian sphere, it will serve as a launch pad for further Russian domination of energy pipelines to Europe, and consequently, an expanding sphere of influence (read control) over Eastern Europe. Alternatively, the Ukraine could be part of the West, be a successful check against Russian expansionist tendencies, serve as a military host to assist US allies in the Caucuses, and continue on the path of free market reforms. The Ukraine's regional significance dictates that Russia must dominate, while the US and Western allies must repel Russian domination of the Ukraine at all costs. This conflict cannot be avoided.

Ukraine is vital to Russia's future for three key reasons, all driven by the reality of geography. Naval ports in Russia's north are hampered by weather, and could be susceptible to a blockade through the Skaggerak straight between Denmark and Sweden. Therefore, a southern port is needed for both trade and as a base of operations for the Russian Navy. Russia currently leases a naval base from Ukraine in the Crimean city of Sevastopol, a lease set to expire in 2017. Currently Ukraine does not want to renew the lease. Russia will have to do anything and everything to retain control of Sevastopol,regardless of any legal agreement.

Second, Ukraine forms a geographical, if not political and ideological, barrier between Russia and most of the former eastern European Soviet satellites. Russian domination of Moldova, Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, and the rest of the Balkans is not possible without first securing a position of preeminence in Ukraine.

Third, a free and western oriented Ukraine could host US or NATO troops and ships, which is sorely needed in the region. As Iran's belligerence escalates, and the threat of a potential military conflict arises, strong Western allies in the Caucuses will become even more important. As evidenced this past summer, a lack of military resources in the region eliminates any perceived threat of a deterrent against Russian aggression.

Complicating Ukraine's future are the regional ethnic splits of Ukraine, also driven by geography. North and West Ukraine are solidly ethnic Ukrainian, while Eastern and Southern Ukraine have several provinces that border Russia and are a near majority ethnic Russian. Only one southern province, Sevastopol, the home of the Russian Black Sea Navy, has an 80% majority ethnic Russian population.

Russia is continuing to move to exploit this geographically based ethnic split. Russia has been enouraging pro-Russian groups, as well as offering passports to ethnic Russians in Ukraine, potentially laying the groundwork for future claims on Ukrainian territory. This is a replay of the run up to the Georgian conflict last summer, where Russia handed out passports to ethic Russians in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Protecting these "Russian citizens" served as justification, albeit a flimsy one, for a Russian military invasion in Georgia. Would Russia do the same thing in Ukraine?

As a result of this concentration of ethnic Russians along the border with Russia, as well as in Crimea and Sevastopol in the South, there will be a continual pull from the eastern Ukraine to Russia, and a pull to the EU and US from the western provinces.

In order for the US to reduce the pull toward (and from) Russia, the US should consider using Russian-like tactics in the effort to block Russian aggression. The US could establish multiple consulates in the eastern and southern Ukraine, specifically in ethnic Russian dominated cities of Sevastopol, Donetsk, and Kharkiv. The express purpose of the consulates should be to 1) Increase/Expedite ethnic Russian immigration to the US, 2) exchange opportunities for college students, 3) increase tourism and business with the US, and 4) to establish a non-military, diplomatic US presence in regions eyed by Russia. By changing the economics and demographics in these regions, the inexorable pull toward Russia will decline, while the demographic reality of those most favorably inclined toward the West will increase. A declining ethnic Russian population in the Ukraine would decrease the likelihood of Russia supporting breakaway or Russian reintegration movements in Ukraine, and could reduce demographically driven ethnic claims on Ukrainian territory.

Russia played the demography card in Georgia, and appears to be setting the stage to again play the same card in Ukraine. The US can and should legitimately use US immigration policy as part of an overarching strategy to check Russian assertiveness, and secure Ukraine's western oriented future.