Russia Pushes Its Way Back Into Ukraine

Russian President Dmitri Medvedev blasted his Ukrainian counterpart, Viktor Yushchenko, on Tuesday, blaming him for creating the worst strain in Russo-Ukrainian relations since the fall of the Soviet Union. In a video message posted to his widely read blog and distributed by the Kremlin, Medvedev emphasized just how bad relations have become.

That relations between Moscow and Kiev are frayed is not news to anyone. The disconnect started with the 2004 Orange Revolution, which brought Yushchenko to power, and has continued with his government's efforts to join Western alliances like NATO and support for other former Soviet states that hoped to break with Moscow. Ukraine also has attempted to expel symbols of Russian influence, such as its Black Sea Fleet, from the country. The deteriorated relationship was emphasized in both 2006 and 2009 also, when Russian energy supplies to Ukraine were shut off - greatly impacting European customers downstream also.

But Medvedev's message was very clear in blaming Yushchenko - not Ukraine as a whole - for the poor relations. Medvedev said t he was certain a new era would soon begin, referring to the shift in public sentiment over the past few years. Since the Orange Revolution, Yushchenko's popularity has nearly disappeared. More Russia-friendly political figures, like former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich, are currently leading in polls - while Yushchenko's approval rating is barely in the single digits. With presidential elections just four months away, it seems likely that a pro-Russian regime will soon retake the helm in Kiev.

But while this would make Moscow's goals in the region easier to achieve, it would simply be a shift in personalities. And Russia is taking a much deeper and more thorough approach to ensuring Ukraine remains a part of its sphere of influence.

Ukraine has always been the most important country in Russia's border regions for Moscow to control. To put it plainly, without that control, Russia cannot maintain strategic coherence and continue on its path of returning to great power status. Ukraine holds the key to Russia's defense and survival. To begin, Ukraine is home to the largest Russian community outside of Russia, is fully integrated into Russia's industrial and agricultural heartland and is the key transit point between Russia and Europe. Given its location, Russia cannot project power politically or militarily into the North Caucasus, the Black Sea or Eastern Europe unless it controls Ukraine. In short, Russia would be economically crippled and nearly cut off from the rest of Europe without Ukraine.

This has made Ukraine the top state for Russia to keep in its orbit. But its importance has forced Russia to take a more subtle approach than it did with Georgia. Moscow is pursuing a long-term set of assimilation programs inside Ukraine to ensure that the country is more firmly tied to Russia's future. This was highlighted in Medvedev's video statement, in which he said the ties between Russia and Ukraine were those of brothers and quoted Gogol, saying, "There are no bonds more sacred than the bonds of brotherhood."

This does not mean Moscow is trying to create a new Soviet Union with Ukraine, but instead is trying to reintegrate Ukraine, formally or informally, back into Russia. Russia would not treat Ukraine the way it does Georgia - as a conquered state - or simply as part of a union, as it did during the Soviet era, but instead as a province that is important to Moscow and integrated into Russia.

At a grassroots level, Moscow has been spreading pro-Russian ideology across Ukraine - not just among the Russian citizens there. This was seen in recent weeks with Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill I's ten-day visit to Ukraine, promoting a common historical and spiritual heritage. Medvedev also has announced plans to open Russian cultural centers across Ukraine to "support their national culture."

This provides a strong foundation for the pro-Russian forces that seem to be coming back into power in Kiev. But by re-instilling the idea of a common Ukrainian-Russian culture, Moscow ensures that no matter who comes to power, the people of the country for the most part will be faithful to Russia. This is a much more permanent way to ensure that the cornerstone to Russian foreign policy remains under Moscow's control.