realclearworld Newsletters: Europe Memo
As we move well into 2016, let's take a quick look back to a column I wrote in December 2015, describing the experience of rolling through an anonymous border crossing in the integrated core of the European Union:
"From one hub to the other in the Benelux nations (Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg) and Germany -- Frankfurt, Utrecht, Antwerp, and away -- the idea of a real border, one where passports are checked and luggage inspected, seems absurd. This, the economic heartland of Europe, is a rare space on the continent, bereft of physical obstruction, traversed by rivers deep and navigable, and now crisscrossed by the most developed and interconnected of rail networks. A fully operational border reinstated there, say as an artifact of a broader breakdown in the Schengen system of open European borders, would show the blatant futility of small-scale national sovereignty reasserted in an age where going bigger is the only way to answer the questions posed by geopolitics."
Transition one month forward, and moving from a featureless Lowlands landscape to an iconic bridge in Scandinavia, one headline in early January showed how quickly the seemingly absurd can become an uncomfortable reality. The Economist:
"It is easy to find a Swede in central Copenhagen nowadays. About 9,000 Swedish workers commute every day to jobs in the bustling Danish capital, crossing the narrow strait that separates the two countries. Since the opening of the 8km (5-mile) Oresund Bridge in 2000, indeed, their cross-border journey to work has been quicker than the daily commute of many workers in London or New York. But that is changing.
[...]
"The new Swedish border checks, Madeleine and Sandra say, will add 30 minutes each way to their commutes. ‘It takes one hour door-to-door, and that's about the limit for me,' says Madeleine. Sandra nods in agreement. ‘I might have to look for work in Sweden instead,' she says."
Swedish border checks on the Oresund Bridge are a powerful symbol of how much has changed in a year. The measures are the first of their kind seen among Nordic countries in 60 years. If at the beginning of 2015, the European Union was muddling through chronic crises localized at its periphery, the beginning of 2016 sees the Union's very core challenged to hold together. The dynamics of local and national politics, ever less self-contained, are forcing frustrated supranational responses. Conflict exists at every level.
The question then is whether Europe is approaching a point of no return. To take a look at the core crisis, let's turn an eye to three countries at Europe's geographical center: Germany, Poland, and the Netherlands.
Germany
The initial optimism seen as Germany opened its doors to refugees in the middle of last year was always destined to subside and turn. The shock of what took place in Cologne on New Year's Eve simply brought that about quicker. Chancellor Angela Merkel has seen approval ratings decline significantly since the onset of the crisis, and her party's regional ally in Bavaria was already taking a stand against her open-door policies before Cologne. The days since have been characterised by protests of every sort.
Beneath the weight of dealing with the immigrants arriving to Europe now, countries such as Germany are left to address a heavier reality: The wreckage of decades of immigration and assimilation norms defined under the oft-misunderstood moniker of multiculturalism. George Friedman, one of the most astute American observers of Europe, gives a nice summary in this article. An excerpt:
"The Europeans pretended that multiculturalism was a form of tolerance. It may have been intended that way. What it was in practice was a ghetto without walls. Behind the willingness to accept perpetual distinctions was the unwillingness to allow the stranger to become one of them. At the heart of the European nation-state is not a set of moral precepts, but a shared history, language and culture. A German is a German because he was born to the German people, as with the French or the Armenians. Citizenship, or the right to legal protections can be granted. Allowing the foreigner to become a citizen was not a challenge. Allowing him to be a German was not a matter of choice. A German was someone born to Germany."
Merkel, long before she welcomed refugees, was a staunch critic of multiculturalism, so her position now must seem jarring. What is sure is that if her political strength within her own country is being undermined, it portends nothing good for a Europe growing accustomed to forward German leadership.
Poland
The political turn in Warsaw, with October elections bringing to power the conservative Law and Justice party, or PiS, is the most radioactive instance of how national politics are laying siege to formerly aloof Brussels. PiS moved fast, making dramatic changes to its highest court and announcing plans to overhaul the staff and operations of the country's public broadcaster. In response to condemnations by EU officials and the implication of possible legal action, Polish officials minced no words. One minister, directing his invective in particular at a German EU commissioner, referenced Nazi-era war crimes.
Poland before October was considered one of the Continent's most enthusiastic proponents of the European Union, and certainly one of its prime beneficiaries. As the most important EU member in Central and Eastern Europe, and a rising regional power in its own right, Warsaw with its wayward ways poses a staunch challenge to European cohesion.
The Netherlands
The Dutch take the helm of the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU for the first half of 2016. Though a small country, this trading nation has long played an outsized role in the functioning of the Union and in the Continent's further integration. But as we have pointed out at RealClearWorld in the past, the Netherlands also serves as a barometer for political changes in broader Europe, and euroskeptics such as Geert Wilders were strutting through the halls of the Hague before they became a force elsewhere.
And now is no different. Even as their own turn to lead the presidency unfolds, Dutch voters will be asked at a referendum whether they approve of a trade treaty with Ukraine. European Commissioner Jean Claude Juncker, in an interview with a leading Dutch newspaper, urged voters to ‘think strategically' and support Ukraine -- likely to little avail. But a poll conducted by the TV program EenVandaag showed the Dutch have probably made up their mind already, and are set to disapprove of the deal by a wide margin.
Looking Forward
So is 2016 the year it all begins to unravel? That's a question of form. The worst is certainly possible, but it's not black-and-white. The Dutch referendum won't sink the association agreement with Ukraine, but it does give voters a chance to vent their displeasure. This Polish government has charged out of the gates, but my bet is that it understands that Warsaw's long-term interests still lie squarely with the European Union and NATO. Indeed, in the middle of the maelstrom, Polish Foreign Minister Witold Waszczykowski has sought to scale down the tone of confrontation, inviting his German counterpart, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, to visit Poland see that the "shape of Poland's democracy is not as bad as may seem from far away," according to an Associated Press report. PiS will also find itself accountable to its electorate, with one survey showing a sharp drop in approval of the party, down to 27 percent, according to Politico EU. Germany's core interest as an economic power, meanwhile, remains with a strong European Union.
In the medium term, we may be seeing a regionalization of integration: Poland wants to play a leading role in regional groupings such as the Visegrad Group, and wants to enhance its cooperation with Romania. Some in the Netherlands have suggested a pared-down Schengen as a means to control immigration while leaving the door open for business. Scandinavian countries emphasize military cooperation. This is undoubtedly a year where the pace and scale of European integration will come under attack. Even if the immigration crisis is answered, we may be looking at a future where there is no single form of European integration, but rather multiple European integrations. It may be the year where politicians and eurocrats learn that Europe is not Jacques Delors' bicycle after all: It cannot simply be peddled forward against all resistance.
Around the Continent
There are a few things we will be watching this week.
Greek Road Trip: First, we'll be keeping an eye on the Greek government as it makes the rounds of European capitals to sell its plans for economic reforms. Politico EU has the story:
"The Greek government plans a radical shake-up of the country's pension system in a bid to impress the markets and press the reset button on its relationship with its EU partners.
"However, instead of seeking approval for the reforms from EU institutions and the International Monetary Fund, the Greeks are mounting a public-relations effort to pitch the new ideas to national governments and journalists. They believe that eurozone finance ministers, who will meet Thursday to discuss the Greek bailout situation, have too narrow a focus and fail to see the big political picture."
Balkan Noise: In the weeks and months ahead, geopolitical competition will pick up in the Balkans between the European Union and Russia. At year's end, NATO was busy working to bring tiny Montenegro into the fold. Serbia is set to be a country of focus this year. The country is looking to push forward its process of accession to the European Union. At the same time, though, Serbia does not aspire to join NATO, and this gives Russia an opportunity to play a spoiler role. B92 has this report on the possible Serbian acquisition of Russia's S-300 air defense system:
"'We will provide direct support to the ally in the Balkans. We will consider your request in the shortest amount of time,' the Russian deputy prime minister said during a joint news conference in Belgrade with Serbia's Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic.
"Asked ‘if Russia will help Serbia with the acquisition of the S-300s' -- which Vucic said were ‘too expensive for our country' -- neither official wished to reveal any details of the ongoing talks, which, according to the Serbian prime minister, are set to continue ‘for many more months.'
"Rogozin said Russia was not interfering in Serbia's security issues, noting that the country ‘has the right to acquire highly efficient non-offensive armaments.'"
The Poland Concern: Finally, on Jan. 13, the European Union will open a high-level debate on Poland. As reported by the Associated Press' Monika Scislowska:
"The concern in Brussels is so high that European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker set the issue on the Jan. 13 agenda of his executive commission. The country, which joined the EU in 2004, could potentially lose its EU voting rights on matters that concern the entire 28-nation bloc.
"The situation reached a crescendo last week when Poland's parliament approved legislation by the Law and Justice party that ends the terms of the current heads of state-run radio and television, who were appointed by the previous, pro-EU establishment.
"The new law also gives the government the authority to make new appointments and cuts down the number of members in the supervisory bodies of state broadcasters. Before the change, a special council appointed the heads of state broadcasters, just as is the case in some other countries in the region, including the Czech Republic.
"It is expected that President Andrzej Duda, who is aligned with the ruling party, will sign the new law soon."
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