That means there are two powers that have an interest in stabilizing the region: Turkey and Iran. Turkey is a major power, and while Iran is weaker, it can still field a significant force. Neither is an Arab country and each is concerned that the outcome of the fighting could be a nation-state larger than any previous states - a true form of the United Arab Republic that the founder of modern Egypt, Gamal Abdel Nasser, sought to build in the late 1950s. The alternative would be ongoing chaos on an escalating path with unforeseen consequences. Syria and Iraq following the Lebanon model would concern both non-Arab powers. Iran has a deep interest in Iraq. Turkey will be forced to take a deep interest in Syria, particularly as it stabilizes.
This is Israel's problem. The ideal situation for Israel is the one that exists now. However, if it evolves toward stabilization, the emergence of a united Arab state hostile to Israel is less likely than the intervention by Turkey and Iran. In either case, Israel's strategic position would begin to dissolve. For the moment discounting Iran, Israel would then face a powerful Turkey, whose longer-term intentions would not be clear. Once it has taken the offensive to solve a defensive problem, the defensive problems would start piling up and necessitate increasing offensive operations.
The current situation is inherently unsustainable. The logical outcome is Turkey and Iran inserting themselves to prevent the emergence of potentially hostile states. In that case, Turkish troops would reach the Israel border at some point. We cannot predict how the Jordanians would respond, nor how Egypt would react in the face of a rising Turkey. The problem is that Israel can't calculate the other countries' actions either. Certainly, it has a powerful position because of the chaos. But it is precisely that chaos that can create a more serious strategic threat. The chaos will either end with competitors settling and creating a new and more united nation-state or a Lebanon-style solution will trigger interventions by other regional powers.
And then, as I have said, the future of Israeli-Egyptian and Israeli-Jordanian relations will depend on the intent and capabilities of an extremely significant nation-state. The Turks would actually be following the model of the Ottoman Empire, which intervened in various directions to protect itself from competitors. I suspect at the time of intervention Turkey would see Israel as a competitor.
Until now, Israel has faced weak nation-states on its frontier and maintained a close relationship with the United States. It now faces a fractious frontier and a weakening relationship with the United States. In my reasoning, this is the calm before the storm, a storm that is no less dangerous for being a decade or more away. Israel will either face a united Arab entity to its east, or Turkey to its north. It also cannot predict the American view of the Turkish evolution. For example, the United States is urging a Turkish intervention in Syria. Clearly, the United States sees Turkey as key to solving this problem, while it sees Israel as less important. Such things change among nations, but that ought to be the most sobering thought to Israel.
