Al-Qaeda's Image Problem

C.I.A. Director Michael Hayden spoke at the Atlantic Council yesterday. James Joyner was on the scene. He quotes Hayden as saying that he believes "the last year has provided 'clear and mounting evidence' that we're winning here because 'authentic voices' -- respected Muslim leaders -- are speaking out against the "un-Islamic" barbarity of al-Qaeda. The upshot of this is that it "can only subsist beyond the reach of civilization and the rule of law."

I wonder if these voices are speaking out against al-Qaeda barbarity writ large, or against al-Qaeda's violence perpetrated against other Muslims. That's an important distinction. World Public Opinion has some numbers - albeit from April 2007 - that paint a mixed picture. On the one hand, publics in Egypt, Pakistan, Morocco and Indonesia, reject violence against civilians. On the other hand, most endorse al-Qaeda's goals:

Large majorities in all countries (average 70 percent or higher) support such goals as: "stand up to Americans and affirm the dignity of the Islamic people," "push the US to remove its bases and its military forces from all Islamic countries," and "pressure the United States to not favor Israel."

Pew Research also has some numbers from 2008 that similarly offer a reason for both hope and dismay.

We may not be winning the ideological battle per se so much as al-Qaeda is losing it. Again, that's an important distinction, because new leaders could direct the group away from attacks against fellow Muslims and back toward Western targets (which is what Ayman al Zawahiri urged the late Abu Musab al-Zarqawi to do in Iraq). That, in turn, would improve al-Qaeda's standing in the Muslim world and put the U.S. back on square one.

See also: Patrick Barry.