France: Whither the Socialists?

Is the Socialist Party Headed for Collapse?

This resounding question was asked this weekend in an op-ed piece in Le Figaro. To the outside observer, another question comes to mind: How could François Mitterand's party slide down so low on the slippery slope of divisions?

Of course, left-wing parties are known worldwide for their lack of discipline when compared to their right-wing counterparts. But this time, the French Socialist Party is evenly - and bitterly - divided between two powerful blocs: center-leftists who support Ségolène Royal and leftists who support Martine Aubry. Indeed, after a vote in which almost 140,000 Socialists cast their ballots in favor of either candidate, Aubry came out on top with a 42-vote majority, a margin of 0.04% between the two candidates!

Such a result was bound to reinforce the growing feeling of distrust between the two coalitions, but the situation has worsened as Ms. Royal has legally challenged the results, which are now being recounted. As they often do in those kinds of situations, accusations of fraud have flown from both sides, contributing to the growing feeling of animosity that has now overwhelmed the Socialist Party.

Indeed, things are definitely looking awful for the Socialists. On the other side of the question, Le Monde asks if Mr. Sarkozy's UMP will be able to benefit from their political foes' misfortune. Of course, UMP officials were eager and satisfied to tell the press that the Socialists had shown the worst side of themselves and that socialism itself was outdated in France.

In my opinion, those left-leaning French electors who may be embarrassed by the main opposition party's divisions are not likely to jump in the UMP boat. In fact, in the same article, Le Monde suggests that such rivalries within the left might spark some "anarcho-unionized" troubles, suggesting that France could be headed for a wave of public strikes. For Le Monde, the only real winners from such a volatile situation on the left are François Bayrou from MODEM (centre) and Olivier Besançenot from LCR (extreme-left).

But for now, all of this is speculation. First of all, we have yet to find out who the real winner of the Socialist race for leadership is and for that, we have to wait for the results of the recount and of possible judiciary actions coming from either Aubry or Royal. Second, European elections will take place next year and they will give us a glimpse of what the balance of power has become on the left side of French politics: Will the extreme-left be able to garner support among disillusioned Socialists? That much will be told by European elections.

However, this much is clear: It's not a good day to be a French Socialist.