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December 28, 2008France: 2008 in Review
Interestingly enough, Le Monde published Saturday the top stories to forget in 2008. Here are the top five entries :
- Italian president Silvio Berlusconi's racist remarks
- Socialist "fraternity" according to former presidential candidate Ségolène Royal
- The presidential wedding between Mr. Sarkozy and Ms. Bruni
- Sarah Palin's campaign
- George W. Bush's accomplishments
As for the memorable ones, two stories made it to this analyst's list:
1. President Sarkozy's presidency of the European Union
2. Warfare within the Socialist party
In my opinion, these two stories connect together to bring about a leading narrative for this year in French politics: president Sarkozy is on cruise control. However slim his legislative agenda may be, nobody on the left, the center or the right has emerged to challenge his leadership. After almost two full years in office, Nicolas Sarkozy is definitely headed for reelection in three years. But let's review briefly these two stories to understand how and why.
1. President Sarkozy's presidency of the European Union
First, on the foreign policy front. The big story this year was undoubtedly Mr. Sarkozy's leadership during the August Georgian crisis. To many observers of international relations, the president of both France and the EU displayed more interest in solving this crisis than did American president George W. Bush. Of course, one could argue that the ongoing American presidential campaign somehow forced Bush not to take too firm a stand in order not to tie the hands of his successor. This point is valid.
However, one could not help but notice that Vladimir Putin and Dimitri Medvedev seemed more interested in hearing European proposals than American ones. This could be interpreted as a sign of weakening American influence over Caucasian affairs. But my guess is, it was probably more a sign of the declining influence of George W. Bush's presidency. Instead of dealing with the lame-duck American head of state, Russians saw more fit in dealing with Europeans under Mr. Sarkozy's leadership.
On the domestic front, two topics were on the EU's radar. The economic crisis and climate change. On the economic front, Mr. Sarkozy's biggest challenge was to counter the protectionist demons with whom many Europeans leaders flirted. The EU was able to coordinate some investments, but it was mostly the national governments of EU countries that intervened as they saw fit. On the economy, national governments remain much more important than any EU institution. Regarding climate change, an accord was reached in early December to pursue lower targets for CO2 emissions. Not much is new under the sun.
2. Warfare within the Socialist party
I won't do a review of all the drama that took place in 2008 within the French Socialist Party. I'll redirect you to three of my previous posts if you want to get a feel of what happened:
- Socialism in the 21st Century
- Socialists Bent on Self-Destruction
How does this drama play into the 2008 narrative of French politics? To put it bluntly, a divided and bitter left is probably Mr. Sarkozy's nicest Christmas gift. But not only are the Socialists divided and bitter, but the woman who came out on top, Martine Aubry, comes from the left wing of the party. Facing an orthodox Socialist, Mr. Sarkozy will have no trouble making himself the reasonable, moderate leader that the French expect of their president. As many have observed before, it seems that the left is more bent on being righteous than on winning.
To support my point, I'll offer a quiz for our readers. How many French presidents, under the Fifth Republic (since 1958), came from the left? Only one, and his name was François Mitterand. How many from the right? De Gaulle, Pompidou, Giscard D'Estaing, Chirac and Sarkozy make for five of them. Five against one. Do we see a pattern here?
In the end, all these stories play right into President Sarkozy's hand. 2008 was good for him, giving him visibility with the presidency of the EU and the near destruction of the main opposition party. On a lighter note, he also got married to a beautiful woman, Carla Bruni. What more could a French president ask for?
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