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September 25, 2009Casus Belli it Ain't
From the London Times:
Iran has informed the International Atomic Energy Agency that it has been building a previously undeclared nuclear facility to enrich uranium, raising fears that Tehran is closer to acquiring an atomic bomb than has been predicted up until now.The presence of a secret second site – built inside a mountain near the holy Shia city of Qum – has been known about by American and other Western intelligence agencies for some time, although nothing has been revealed until now.
Iran’s formal letter to the IAEA in Vienna, sent on Monday, pre-empted an announcement to be made today by President Obama, Gordon Brown and President Sarkozy of France before the opening of the G20 economic summit in Pittsburgh, in which Tehran will be accused of building the secret facility about 100 miles southwest of the Iranian capital.
On the surface, this calls for a visceral "whoa," right? Not necessarily. Keep reading:
Although the CIA and National Security Agency (NSA) has been tracking construction of the plant for several years, Mr Obama decided it was time to put maximum pressure on Tehran by revealing its existence.Reports from Washington indicate that Iran had learnt of the West’s uncovering of its second plant and moved to declare it formally to the IAEA.
Iran wrote a brief, cryptic letter to the IAEA saying it now had a “pilot plant” under construction, whose existence it had not revealed. Iran’s first and officially declared facility is at Natanz in southern Iran.
[...]
In response, the IAEA has requested Iran to provide specific information and access to the facility as soon as possible. This will allow the agency to assess safeguards verification requirements for the facility.”He [the IAEA spokesman] said the IAEA was told by Tehran that no nuclear material had been introduced into the facility.
So this confirms three things for us:
1. The IAEA is not truly equipped to monitor all undeclared nuclear activity around the globe. Check.
2. The Islamic Republic is intransigent on the matter of uranium enrichment. Check.
3. While news of the second facility is certainly alarming, Iran likely lacks the sufficient nuclear materials necessary for producing a bomb at this time. Check, check and check.
None of this means the international community should ignore such news or downgrade it. But some perspective is crucial here: U.S. intelligence has known about this facility for years. That means President Bush knew about this facility, which, one might assume, means the more hawkish members of his inner-circle knew of its existence. If it wasn't cause for panic in 43's White House, it certainly won't be in 44's either. The second facility isn't operational, and David Sanger's report on the same story this morning confirms as much with American officials.
The timing of all this is key. As most reports are indicating, Western leaders had hoped to go public with this story at this weekend's G-20 summit in order to strengthen their hand against Tehran. The audience here is rather obvious: Russia and China.
By officially coming clean on a program everyone already knew about, Iran can assuage any concerns in Beijing and Moscow. This also gives the Islamic Republic a perfunctory bargaining chip ahead of next week's negotiations with the West; a rather meaningless item they can trade away in order to demonstrate Tehran's "good faith" in U.S.-Iran rapprochement.
UPDATE:
Andrew Sullivan applauds Obama for his timing:
He busts Ahmadinejad in a air-tight case that focuses on active Iranian deception. All this, of course, may still not be enough. Putin's position remains opaque; and China is still not on the full wagon. But can anyone say that the isolation of Iran has weakened under Obama?If you add to the mix the critical factor of the Green Revolution, then the West's position vis-a-vis Iran has improved immensely in the last eight months. And if you believe that Obama's Cairo speech was at least a positive factor in helping bring that about - then the promise of the Obama era in American foreign policy begins to take shape.
Weakness? There is sometimes more strength in projecting confidence rather than bluster, and seeking cooperation rather than ultimatums.
I'm not so certain. After all, most reports indicate that the United States had been monitoring the development of this facility for years. In that case, it seems appropriate to applaud President Bush for sitting on this intelligence nugget for a later date, no?
Obama's discretion is not surprising. However, such discretion form the Bush White House - an administrion known for its itchy trigger finger - is in fact far more laudable.
And I remain skeptical, much like Andrew, over whether or not this nuclear revelation truly hurts the Iranian position. Remember, the audience here is in Beijing and Moscow, respectively. If they remain mostly unmoved it leaves the West precisely where it was yesterday. As I said, there's a good chance this could become a meaningless bargaining chip for Iran during next week's negotiations, which may only serve to stall discussion on Iran's active and real threats.
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