We'd All Love to See the Plan

Juan Cole makes a great point on Iran's recent unrest:

But for the movement to go further and become truly revolutionary, it would have to have a leader who wanted to overthrow the old regime and who could attract the loyalty of both the people and elements of the armed forces. So far this key revolutionary element, of dual sovereignty, has been lacking, insofar as opposition leaders Mir Hosain Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have tried to stay inside the Khomeinist framework while arguing that it is Khamenei who violated it by making it too authoritarian. Saying you want slightly less autocracy within a clerical theocracy is not a recipe for revolution.

[Emphasis my own.]

Exactly. And as my colleague Greg put it a few days ago, an ideological change at the top doesn't necessarily change strategic regional interests. If I were an Iranian Green, and the reins of power were handed to me tomorrow, I would still hold the nuclear program over the international community's head for leverage and eventual concessions. This new, hypothetical regime might make for a more agreeable negotiating partner, but it doesn't change the dynamic all that much.