Tehran's supreme leader is dead, its ballistic missile and drone capability significantly degraded, its navy destroyed, its nuclear sites rubble — and Iran is winning. This is consistent with a trend throughout modern war history: the side with more firepower loses if it does not tie a political end state to its military strategy. This was true of the French in Indochina, the Soviets in Afghanistan, and the United States in Vietnam. Superior firepower fails when it is untethered from a political end state.
What those conflicts shared was not a failure of military prowess from the more muscular, modern, and advanced force but rather a failure of imagination. In each case, the more powerful military could not see that its weaker adversary wins merely by surviving beyond the more powerful adversary’s will. The Iranian regime has long understood this. It’s clear that the Trump administration does not.
There are two American wars in Iran. The first is the one you can track through recorded data, such as sorties launched, launchers destroyed, and naval vessels sunk. By that accounting, Operation Epic Fury, a remarkably complicated partnered military operation across air, sea, land, low Earth orbit, and cyberspace, has been a historic military achievement. The second war is much more important. In this war, victory isn’t measured in destroyed targets. It’s measured in time, political pressure, and public tolerance for pain. Tehran is decidedly winning this war by the day.
The regime's strategy was never to match American firepower. It couldn't. But the mullahs have long absorbed the lessons of Ho Chi Minh, who articulated his doctrine in the Vietnam War: "You can kill ten of my men for every one we kill of yours. But even at those odds, you will lose and we will win." Employment of this strategy allowed the North Vietnamese to defeat the Americans by withstanding a decade of bombing that, by the end of the American war in Vietnam, dropped more ordnance on North Vietnam than all of World War II combined.
Tehran is waiting for the moment when the political cost to Trump of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz exceeds the cost of stopping. Until the strait reopens, every sunrise over the Persian Gulf is an Iranian victory.
Mixed Messaging
President Trump makes this calculation easier for the mullahs. Conflicting public statements about objectives and outcomes hand Iran a strategic advantage. Trump announced Operation Epic Fury in February with the stated aim of eliminating Iran's nuclear threat. Days later, he declared Iran was "a month away from having a nuclear weapon" — a direct contradiction of his own claim from June 2025 that airstrikes on Fordow and Natanz had "completely and totally obliterated" Iran's nuclear capability. In late March, he told reporters he had "one goal" — no Iranian nuclear weapon — and that the goal had been attained. The bombing continued apace.
What Victory Actually Requires
Winning this war requires three elements that the administration has not yet demonstrated. First, a clearly defined and consistently stated political end state. One set of objectives repeated consistently and without variation.
Second, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz must become the singular operational priority. This will require destroying coastal missile batteries, clearing sea mines, and likely providing military escorts through the chokepoint. It will take months, possibly longer. But every day the strait stays closed is a day the second war is lost.
Third, disciplined messaging that ties military action to that objective. Declarations of victory while combat operations continue do not project strength. They project incoherence and hand Iran informational momentum.
Tehran does not need a battlefield victory. It needs only to wait. The Trump administration must understand and respond to the nature of political and informational war. Until it does, every strike, every sortie, every tactical success risks becoming just another step toward a strategic defeat.
Joe Buccino is a retired U.S. Army Colonel and a former Communications Director for U.S. Central Command. His book “When Every Word Counts” is available on Amazon.
