When Barack Obama met Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda Wednesday at the U.N. General Assembly, it must have felt a bit like speed dating. Mr. Noda, who assumed office earlier this month, is the fourth Japanese leader that Mr. Obama has met in just three years, and Japan's sixth premier in a half decade.
This churn in Tokyo makes it almost impossible for U.S. and Japanese leaders to forge a stable working relationship. It is becoming a strain on ties between the two Pacific allies, and is one reason Japan has slipped off the radar in Washington. Yet the two partners need each other more than ever, given the common challenges they face, from economic stagnation to continued instability in East Asia.
Just like a speed-dating booth, the Japanese premiership attracts some odd characters. Taro Aso was a manga (comics) fanatic. Yukio Hatoyama referred to himself as a "space alien." Naoto Kan tried to portray himself as a scrappy fighter, but he caved under the pressure of the March 11 disaster. Mr Noda compared himself to a bottom-feeding loach fish. Not only have these self-characterizations failed to sway the Japanese people, they have diminished respect for the world's second-largest democratic economy.
All of this might be just a curiosity were the effects not so telling. It was business as usual in Washington during the quick turnover starting with the Liberal Democratic Party's Shinzo Abe in 2007. But once significant policy differences cropped up under Mr. Hatoyama, it slowly became clear that without a stable relationship at the top, solving problems was increasingly difficult.
The point of greatest contention remains implementing a 2006 agreement to move a U.S. Marines Corps Air Station from congested Futenma in the south of Okinawa to an existing facility in the less-populated north of the island. Mr. Hatoyama capriciously upended the agreement last year, causing a flurry of diplomatic activity to try to right the plan.
This week in New York, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Foreign Minister Koichiro Gemba yet again affirmed the Futenma base relocation plan. Yet, as officials from both sides privately acknowledge, there is little chance that the implementation will happen soon, given local opposition in Okinawa to constructing a new runway for the Marine helicopters that will move up north.
Other issues similarly plague the relationship, such as the ongoing Japanese restriction on U.S. beef imports, in place since 2003 amid fears of mad-cow disease. There's also the question of market access for U.S. companies, particularly in the medical technology field, into Japan.
While most of these are usually resolved at lower levels of government, the lack of clear direction from the top in Tokyo has meant the lack of a trade policy or even a general approach to economic recovery. Diplomats from both countries fervently hope that Japan will soon announce its intention to join the budding Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement.
True, Mr. Noda has had to pay attention to recovery efforts from the March 11 triple disaster, like his predecessor Mr. Kan did. Yet, six months on, Japan still doesn't have a comprehensive recovery plan, while clean-up at the stricken Fukushima nuclear plant continues.
In fact, confusion sowed by Mr. Kan over closing the rest of Japan's nuclear plants has made things worse. It has led to uncertainty over the future of the country's electricity supply, even as businesses and citizens comply with government requests to cut energy consumption by 15% since the earthquake and nuclear disaster. To his credit, Mr. Noda has at least explained to the Japanese public that the country can't survive in the near term without nuclear power. Still, like for Mr. Kan, post-disaster policy will be the make or break issue for Mr. Noda.
While the new prime minister figures out how to proceed in Tokyo, the trouble is Washington already thinks Japan has no leaders capable of turning the ship of state onto a new course. If Mr. Noda goes quickly too, America's unease will grow.
Despite this, officials in both Tokyo and Washington recognize the continuing importance of the U.S.-Japan alliance and broader political relationship. They know that their two countries are still the best chance for reshaping Asian regional relations. China has turned out to not be a reliable partner, while India is yet too focused on domestic problems and on terror threats from Pakistan. The Association of South East Asian Nations has proved itself a good debating venue, but with little overall policy impact.
On the other hand, Washington and Tokyo have the benefit of a longstanding working relationship. Japan's continued hosting of U.S. bases assures a credible American presence in the Asia-Pacific, while the alliance with Tokyo means Washington has a leading Asian democracy sharing most of its views on civil society, freedom of navigation, and democracy. Officials in both countries realize that they are much more effective in protecting their own interests and shaping a liberal environment in Asia when they work together, rather than separately.
But that's precisely why the stakes are so high for this relationship. Strong policy from Tokyo, a clear vision of Japan's role in Asia, and the willingness to carry more burdens in Asia is required to keep Japan from becoming a sideshow. Under current budget constraints that may be a tall order for Mr. Noda. But unless he wants to become just the latest to sit down in the speed dating booth, he must make his words about the centrality of the U.S.-Japan relationship a reality.