Under intense pressure from the United States and the European Union, the president of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), a country flush with wealth from such minerals as copper, diamonds, and cobalt, finally agreed on Aug. 8 not to run again.
Joseph Kabila was supposed to step down in 2016 after serving the constitutional limit of two terms. A master at buying time and stringing out his international critics, Kabila managed to stay in power for nearly 18 years, succeeding his assassinated father. The election is now set for Dec. 23.
But no one should be lulled into complacency. The autocratic Kabila, who has amassed substantial wealth, still seems intent on retaining power. He and his family have stakes in 80 companies at home and abroad, with holdings worth tens of millions of dollars, according to research released last year by the U.S.-based Congo Research Group at New York University.
Kabila will remain the head of his party, and he has hand-picked Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary to run to succeed him. Shadary is described by Reuters as a “hard-core loyalist” who in May 2017 was placed under EU sanctions, including an asset freeze and travel ban for violating human rights in his role as interior minister.
If Shadary wins, Kabila will be able to run again in 2023 (he’ll be just 52 years old), retaining power in a Vladimir Putin-like maneuver. According to an analyst with the South-Africa-based Mail and Guardian, “It is widely assumed that, should he win, Shadary will serve as a puppet, allowing Kabila to pull the strings even if he has no formal position in government.”
Remaining in charge, Kabila presents the United States with two challenges. First, because the continuation of his regime will create inevitable unrest in the DRC, Central Africa will remain a tinder box, creating an environment for terrorists to build a global base. Second, China, aggressively pursuing influence and assets in Africa, will make common cause with Kabila’s regime to advance its interests.
No wonder Nikki Haley, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, worked hard to deny Kabila a third term. But she is not naïve. She said on Aug. 8 after the Congo president agreed to step down, “This development is another step, but there is much more to be done.” The United States and other democracies need to ensure the election four months from now is fair.
“Should the scrutiny in fact lessen,” wrote Hans Hoebeke, Africa analyst with the International Crisis Group on Aug. 16, “it would leave the regime in the driver’s seat, the unrestrained master of the election’s timing and procedures. The risk of manipulation would remain.”
Kabila is already doing his best to rig the vote to favor his dauphin Shadary. He has taken extreme steps to prevent Moses Katumbi Chapwe, a popular opposition candidate, from running. Katumbi is a wealthy businessman with interests in property, mining and agriculture. He also owns Africa’s top soccer club and served as the first democratically elected governor of Katanga province, at the time the DRC’s largest.
In 2016, Katumbi was sentenced in absentia to prison on questionable charges of selling real estate that he did not own. He was also accused of hiring mercenaries. (He was exonerated by a panel of the country’s Catholic bishops that said in its report that the “two trials are simply a farce.”) To avoid prison or death, he went into exile and has so far been prevented from filing to run for president.
In a remarkable show of solidarity, the six major opposition parties last week issued a statement that demanded that Kabila withdraw his military threats against Katumbi and his followers and allow the former governor to enter the country and take other steps to ensure a fair vote. The parties are also moving toward putting forward a single joint candidate, according to the Associated Press.
The last thing Kabila wants is a free and fair election. But the U.S., the EU, the African Union, and other international organizations must demand it – with all qualified candidates having a chance on the ballot. Otherwise, the risk is instability throughout the continent and economic domination by China. The Trump administration deserves significant credit for addressing the danger posed by Kabila’s extended rule, but there is still urgent work to be done and only weeks to do it.
James K. Glassman was formerly Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy under President Geroge W. Bush and a member of the advisory board of United for Africa’s Democratic Future.