By Nile Gardiner

Argentina’s launch of a naval blockade “to isolate the Falklands” is in clear violation of British sovereignty. It should be considered an act of war and must be met with the use of force by Great Britain if Argentina does not back off.

According to a report by The Telegraph’s Fergus MacErlean:

Argentine patrol vessels have boarded 12 Spanish boats, operating under fishing licences issued by the Falkland Islands, for operating “illegally” in disputed waters in recent weeks.

Argentine patrol commanders carrying out interceptions near the South American coast told Spanish captains they were in violation of Argentina’s “legal” blockade of sea channels to the Falklands.

The warning has been backed up in a letter to Aetinape, the Spanish fishing vessels association from the Argentine embassy in Madrid warning boats in the area that “Falklands, South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands and adjoining maritime spaces are an integral part of the Argentine territory.”

The Kirchner regime has for some time been threatening a blockade of the Falklands and is now beginning to implement it in an effort to strangle the Islands economically. London should respond forcefully to this provocation by dispatching a second destroyer to the South Atlantic, as well as further Typhoon fighter aircraft and an additional attack submarine, as a warning to Argentina. Britain should also prepare to deploy its contingency infantry battalion – the Spearhead Lead Element (SLE) – to the Falklands at short notice to reinforce the 1,200-strong British Forces Garrison based near Stanley.

A significant show of force by Britain, rather than a weak-kneed "official complaint" by the Foreign Office, is needed to emphatically demonstrate to Argentina that it is playing with fire.

The British government should make it categorically clear to Cristina Kirchner and her administration that its behavior over the Falklands is unacceptable and will not be tolerated. Its blockade is not only a violation of international law: it is an aggressive, hostile act designed to intimidate foreign ships doing business with the Falkland Islands. Mrs. Kirchner has also threatened to cut off air links to the Islands that had been negotiated back in 1999 and has launched a series of tirades against Britain, including calling it "a crude colonial power in decline.”

This is not a moment for diplomatic niceties by the prime minister and the foreign secretary, but a time for firm leadership in the defense of over 3,000 overwhelmingly British Falkland Islanders threatened by a hostile power on the other side of the world.

For David Cameron, his handling of the Falklands issue may be a defining moment. He should not underestimate the gravity of the situation Britain faces today, or be unwilling to do what is necessary to defend British sovereignty. If Argentina persists with its blockade, it must face the consequences and be sharply reminded that any attempt to cut off the Falklands or invade it will end in heavy defeat for Buenos Aires.
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Nile Gardiner is a Washington-based foreign affairs analyst and political commentator. He appears frequently on American and British television and radio, including Fox News Channel, CNN, BBC, Sky News, and NPR.

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After creating the ALBA with Cuba 10 years ago, Hugo Chávez now is hosting the inaugural for the CELAC (Comunidad de Estados Latinoamericanos y del Caribe - Community of Latin American and Caribbean States).

ALBA is mostly dependent on Venezuelan oil, and its current members - Bolivia, Nicaragua, (Honduras dropped out), Ecuador, Dominica, St. Vincent and Antigua - are not exactly the largest economies in the world. Another Chávez brainchild, the Bank of the South (Banco del Sur) has tanked, so far, due to liquidity issues and lack of reserves.

But Chávez knows how to get publicity, and he also knows that his fellow heads of state in Latin America love to travel all-expenses-paid-by-their citizenry to other countries since it gives the appearance of doing something; everybody gets to badmouth the USA; the local media (which he controls) will lap up the meeting; Mexico wanted to be included in something; and, who knows, there may even be slush fund opportunities in the bargain.

Voilá, CELAC was born, created in Mexico last year.

The spin is intense: CELAC is touted as "a new geopolitical structure," soon to replace the "old and worn out" OAS, with Caracas not only as its capital (of course!) but also the capital of the Americas, with growing economies; just take a look at the map:

Continue reading "CELAC: Chavez's Latest "Alternative"" »

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After returning from his latest round of chemotherapy in Cuba, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has reportedly been hospitalized with renal failure and medullary aplasia:

The UK's Telegraph reports that Hugo Chavez is in the hospital 'for kidney failure.'

El Nuevo Herald also reports that (my translation: if you use this translation please link to this post and credit me):

On the other hand, the source stated that Chavez suffered from medullary aplasia, the disappearance of blood-producing cells in the bone marrow, which complicated his medical state. According to doctors, medullary aplasia can be total, affecting the production of red and white blood cells, or partial, which affects the production of one type of blood cells.

Of course, it didn't take long for Chavista officials to deny the Herald report:

Venezuela's Information Minister Andres Izarra appeared to deny the report in a posting on the micro-blogging website Twitter.

"Those who should be admitted are the journalists of the Nuevo Herald, except into a madhouse (instead of a hospital)," Izarra tweeted, without providing further details.

Chavez subsequently stated that he'd "be the first one to say if there was any difficulty in the process," in a telephone interview this morning.

He didn't, however, specify his whereabouts.

Ambassador Roger Noriega last week argued that "we must start thinking about, and preparing for, a world without Hugo Chavez."

Indeed.

Cross-posted at Fausta's blog

(AP Photo)

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Rafael Correa's in the vicinity because he is attending the UN General Assembly, so he thought he would drop by Union City High School on Friday.

Not so, said the city's residents:

"It is evident that President Correa has associated with Fidel and Raul Castro of Cuba and Hugo Chavez of Venezuela," said Union City Mayor Brian Stack in a statement. "Even associating with such regimes sends a terrible message to the world and condones the many evils that have been imposed on the residents of those nations."

"For these reasons, I refuse to welcome President Correa to Union City."

The announcement by Stack comes a day after he met with Cuban exile leaders who were outraged after learning that Correa – who is in the New York/New Jersey region because of the United Nations General Assembly - was going to be featured at an Ecuadorian event at Union City High School on Friday.

The Cuban exiles pressed for Correa to be dis-invited because of what they denounced as his oppressive government in Ecuador and his support for the Communist regime in Cuba as well as Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

“The mayor said he was going to cancel the event,” said Sergio Gatria, an exile leader who was at the meeting, which was held at the headquarters of the Former Cuban Political Prisoners organization. “He said he had no idea that his was planned at the high school, and that as long as he’s mayor, no dictator, or sympathizer of dictators and terrorists, would be welcome to Union City.”

“Correa supports dictators, is an oppressive leader and hobnobs with [Iranian President] Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. This man is a sworn enemy of the United States. It is an affront to this community to roll out the red carpet for someone like that.”

...that the Ecuadorean government address several facets of its media policy and the proposed communications law that would create a state media oligopoly and regulate the awarding and confiscation of radio and television broadcasting rights, and to cease making offensive statements about the press

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Russia grants Venezuela $4 billion for military spending while China is lending Venezuela an additional $4 billion:

Venezuela is finalizing agreements for two separate credit lines of $4 billion each with Russia and China, with a portion of the financing earmarked for military equipment for the South American nation, according to Venezuelan state media.

With the world's largest oil reserves, Venezuela needs a well equipped military to defend itself from foreign aggression, President Hugo Chavez said during a broadcast phone call reported by the Venezuelan News Agency.

Chavez had to call in the news from Havana, where he is undergoing chemotherapy.

Readers of this blog may recall that Russia has financed over $6 billion worth of military equipment from 2005-2010.

On the other hand, Venezuela is borrowing at least $24 billion from China:

last year, Venezuela received a $20 billion credit line from the China Development Bank for housing

The housing construction has not started, but Hugo's betting on oil futures, so to speak, in a very big way.

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According to a new poll from Angus Reid:

Only nine per cent of respondents believe the “War on Drugs”—the efforts of the U.S. government to reduce the illegal drug trade—has been a success, while two thirds (67%) deem it a failure.

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Iran, whose embassy in Bolivia is the largest in our hemisphere, recently sent Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi to Bolivia at the Bolivian Defense Ministry's invitation.

While in Bolivia, Vahidi attended a ceremony with President Evo Morales:

The article does not touch on the nature of Vahidi's visit to the BDM. Argentinian officials apparently protested however, because Bolivia's foreign minister wrote a letter of apology to the Argentinian foreign minister, and Vahidi was sent out of the country. The apology claimed that:

The invitation . . . had been issued by the Bolivian defence ministry which did not know the background to the case and had not co-ordinated with other departments.

Vahidi, who was asked this week to leave the country, is wanted for being behind the 1994 Argentine Israelite Mutual Association (AMIA) bombing.

Argentina had previously protested Vahidi's appointment as Defense Minister, which Iran carefully ignored.

Vahidi is not the only Iranian accused of being connected to the AMIA bombing who travels to Latin America. As you may recall, Mohsen Rabbani, who is also wanted for the bombings, is believed to be recruiting in Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica and Mexico.

Argentina continues to press the case on the 1994 AMIA and 1992 Israeli embassy bombings.

Cross-posted at Fausta's blog.

(AP Photo)

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Via Latin American Thought:

The fight for hearts and minds reached a new level on May 3, when Cuba and Iran announced plans to increase media cooperation via Iranian-run Spanish language news network Hispan TV. Hispan TV was launched last week, eight months after a September 2010 announcement from Iranian state officials announcing the importance of increasing awareness of Iran’s “ideological legitimacy.”

But why in Spanish? The Guardian reports that Ezatollah Zarqami, the head of Iranian State TV, says because half of the world speaks Spanish.

However:

The answer most likely has to do with the intended audience. Launching a Spanish language network clearly targets the Spanish speaking world, the majority of which resides in Latin America. It is an example of the type of soft power information campaigns that many governments are undertaking in efforts to promote policy, improve public diplomacy, and have a say in the information madhouse that exists today.

While the goal of this venture is supposedly "the reflection of first-hand, authentic news," Cuban Colada points out that:

Iran, Syria, Cuba, Russia and China are among the 10 worst repressors of the Internet, according to a report by the Committee to Protect Journalists published on Monday. Click here for details.

Notice how the goal was stated as "the reflection," not the reporting.

Cross-posted at Fausta's blog.

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A new book by the International Institute for Strategic Studies confirms that the Venezuelan government's ties to the FARC involved not only weapons deals with other parties (including Belarus), support for the FARC's claims of political legitimacy, the use of Venezuelan territory, and offers of $300 million dollars, but that the Venezuelan government may have had the FARC act as hit men against political opponents. The book is titled The FARC Files: Venezuela, Ecuador and the Secret Archive of  'Raúl Reyes'.

Of course the Venezuelan Embassy in Washington, DC, already issued a press release rejecting the IISS allegations.

The BBC and others are covering the new book as well.

Continue reading "Venezuela Wanted FARC to Act as Hit Men" »

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In an article titled Kuwaitis Among Trainees In ‘Guards’ Latin Camp the Arab Times reports:

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard is allegedly training a large number of Kuwaitis, Bahrainis and Saudis in a private training camp located in Waheera, a remote area near the borders of Venezuela and Columbia, and intends to use them to carry out terrorist activities within their respective countries and other areas across the world in case Iran is attacked militarily, Al-Seyassah daily quoted a reliable source as saying.

Since the reports come from Arab-language newspapers, I speculate that the location of Waheera is actually Guajira (whose phonetical pronunciation is the same as "Waheera") in this map:

The article continues:

The trainees are first sent to Venezuelan capital Caracas or Columbian capital Bogota via Damascus and from there, they are sent to the border region in cars, one of the militants who broke away from the Iranian group told the daily.

Reportedly, the training camp is run by some Iranian intelligence officers and others affiliated to the Revolutionary Guard in cooperation with Hezbollah and Hamas. The trainees were given courses in making bombs, carrying out assassinations, kidnapping people and transporting the hostages to other locations. [Emphasis added]

The operations are allegedly financed through the drug trade:

When asked about the financing of this militia, the source said the money Iran makes through drug trafficking and money laundering is equal to the budget of some countries. “For example, Dutch police, in cooperation with security authorities of seven other countries, arrested 17 drug smugglers in 2009 in Korasu and confiscated 2,000 kilos of cocaine from them. The huge quantity was smuggled through tankers from Venezuela to West Africa and then to Holland, Lebanon and Spain. Smugglers also transported cocaine by air from Korasu to Holland, Belgium, Spain and Jordan. The Dutch authorities had then announced that the smuggling network was linked to Hezbollah and Iran,” he added. [Emphasis added]

These reports have been surfacing recently (including Kuwaiti newspapers), but long-time readers of my blog know about the Iranian and Hezbollah presences in Latin America. Interestingly, now the reports are including Hamas.

Cross-posted at Fausta's blog.

(h/t Vlad)

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While the U.S. goes broke and the Middle East bursts in riots, students have gone on hunger strike in Venezuela protesting human rights conditions in the country.

Noticias 24 reports that the students are dehydrated but in stable condition. The strike started on Jan. 31 at the OAS office with a dozen students but by now a total of 67 people are on hunger strike in several locations in 10 states across the country, including the Brazilian embassy in Caracas. The protesters are requesting that all political prisoners named in a list of 27 people be freed and given medical attention:

The protestors, mostly university students and youth activists, have been calling for the OAS to investigate allegations of human rights abuses in Venezuela as well as for the release of jailed opposition figures they believe are political prisoners. OAS Secretary General Jose Miguel Insulza has said that he could not meet with the protesters in Caracas without an invitation from the Venezuelan government.

Maduro said the protest should be handled internally, without the intervention of the U.S. or international organizations. He also alleged that right-wing opponents of Venezuela's socialist government were operating from Miami and playing a part in orchestrating the hunger strike.

About a dozen students and activists began a fast Jan. 31 outside the local Caracas office of the OAS. Some news reports have stated that the protest has grown to include as many as 65 protesters.

The protesters have called for the release of several jailed opposition figures, including two jailed members of the national parliament. One of the officials faces corruption charges while the other has been found guilty of being complicit in a homicide.

Continue reading "The Hunger Strike in Venezuela" »

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I have been posting about the close ties between Iran and Venezuela for years now, and last month Welt Online published this report,
"Achse Caracas–Teheran
Iran plant Bau einer Raketenstellung in Venezuela" ("Caracas-Tehran Axis: Iran plans to build a missile base in Venezuela." You can read the Google translation here).

The article refers to an agreement signed on October 19 this year:

According to information received by Welt on Line, Iran's Supreme Security Council had proposed a joint military facility on Venezuelan soil to increase the deterrent power of Iran against the West. The cooperation would be a way for Iran to build a strategic base in South American - in the backyard of the United States.

Barack Obama, coincidentally, has already stated that a nuclear-powered Venezuela is fine by him.

Anna Mahjar-Barducci at Hudson New York has more on the Iran-Venezuela missile agreement,
Iran Placing Medium-Range Missiles in Venezuela; Can Reach the U.S.:

At a moment when NATO members found an agreement, in the recent Lisbon summit (19-20 November 2010), to develop a Missile Defence capability to protect NATO's populations and territories in Europe against ballistic missile attacks from the East (namely, Iran), Iran's counter-move consists in establishing a strategic base in the South American continent - in the United States's soft underbelly.

According to Die Welt, Venezuela has agreed to allow Iran to establish a military base manned by Iranian missile officers, soldiers of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Venezuelan missile officers. In addition, Iran has given permission for the missiles to be used in case of an "emergency". In return, the agreement states that Venezuela can use these facilities for "national needs" – radically increasing the threat to neighbors like Colombia. The German daily claims that according to the agreement, Iranian Shahab 3 (range 1300-1500 km), Scud-B (285-330 km) and Scud-C (300, 500 and 700 km) will be deployed in the proposed base. It says that Iran also pledged to help Venezuela in rocket technology expertise, including intensive training of officers.

Of course, considering the flights between Iran and Venezuela, Iranian personnel may be manning the technology in Venezuela.

Continue reading "Iranian Missiles in Venezuela?" »

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Mono Jojoy, also known as Jorge Briceño, whose real name was Víctor Julio Suárez Rojas, was the military commander and No. 2 man of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). He was killed on Sept. 21 by the Colombian military during a raid on his terrorist camp.

The Colombian authorities have released a video of Mono Jojoy addressing the FARC troops 20 days before his death at one of their main camps on the occasion of welcoming new initiates (h/t Shane). Here is the video:

My translation (if you use the translation, please credit me and link to this post):

"If the comrades Marulanda and Jacobo, for the political circumstances in this country, made the political decision to organize this guerrilla army, [it was] due to causes that justify the existence of this guerrilla.

"Because of that, being a guerrilla is the highest responsibility.

"What we do here is to shape, to improve the character, the thinking, of people coming from a capitalist society, a gossipy society. We, men and women who integrate this army, do it because we had no other opportunity, not because we are violent. We say, let's talk, but they don't pay attention. They want the peace of the kneeling, and that's not us.

"We respect ourselves to be respected. We're not going to spend 50 years to say that the armed struggle is useless.

"That's what I wanted to tell you today. Thank you comrades."

Fausta Wertz blogs at Fausta's blog.

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Last week, Josh Rogin of Foreign Policy published a top ten list of the new Republican powerbrokers in the wake of tomorrow's anticipated U.S. election. I could spend time quibbling with the list - many of the powerbrokers he lists are not new at all, and given that the U.S. Senate is unlikely to change hands, it is hard to see how Sens. Lugar, Kyl, or McCain have any different roles on Wednesday than they do today. But that's beside the point.

If there is one Republican on the list who stands out as someone who will actually, in Rogin's words, "stand between Obama and the world," it is Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Florida. Ros-Lehtinen, who stands to take over the House Foreign Affairs Committee, was born in Havana, and her views on Cuba mark a significant departure from the administration's approach. The Miami Herald thinks her rise to the chairmanship effectively ends any talk of easing in relations with the current Cuban regime, and they're likely right:

Her ascendancy could also spell doom for Berman's bill on foreign-aid reform. She argues often for more vetting of foreign aid in the hope of finding cuts, and she has also introduced legislation to cut U.S. funding for the United Nations and the Palestinian Authority. She is also highly skeptical of the civilian nuclear agreements that the Obama administration is negotiating with Vietnam and Jordan. A vocal critic of what she sees as the Obama team's cool approach to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Ros-Lehtinen could use the committee as a sounding board for those who want changes in the Obama administration's approach to Middle East peace.

Her actual voting and co-sponsorship record on a host of issues is quite moderate, even liberal by current Republican Party standards. But Ros-Lehtinen has already earned a reputation as a tough operator, and when it comes to clashes with the White House's views, I expect she'll prove to be the kind of politician who doesn't back away from public confrontation on the issues.

(AP Photo)

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According to the Broadband Forum, there are just shy of 500 million broadband subscribers worldwide:

China, the powerhouse of global broadband in the 21st century so far, was responsible for 43 percent of all net broadband lines added in Q2 and performed far better than the same quarter in 2009 (China includes Mainland China, Hong Kong & Macau). In Western Europe, many markets did better than the equivalent 2009 quarter. Germany, the UK, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Poland and Turkey, amongst others, all reported strong numbers. Central and South American markets have cooled to an extent, but many are still reporting good quarterly growth (of 5-7 percent). However, the US and in particular Canada, broadband growth has significantly slowed, affected by the end of housing stimulus packages. In Canada's case, the market slowed to levels not seen for a decade.

(AP Photo)

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In Spanish at USTREAM:

In English on CNN here

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The results of Sunday’s National Assembly elections in Venezuela were not announced until well past midnight early Monday morning: The opposition won over 52% of the vote but did not win the majority in the National Assembly. However, the opposition won 60 seats, ending the two-thirds super-majority Hugo Chávez needed to slide his projects through.

Chávez was hoping for a crushing win that would propel him to a victory in next year’s presidential election. Instead, his party kept only 94 seats, in spite of extensive gerrymandering that favored candidates from Chávez’s party, Chávez’s unlimited use of state funds for their campaigns, and his constant television access.

By Tuesday morning, Chavez was claiming that his party beat the opposition by a slight margin in the overall vote, contradicting early reports. The Wall Street Journal points out,

The different interpretations of the nationwide vote count are likely explained by the fact that the opposition includes the political party PPT. The PPT, a leftist group that only won a couple of seats Sunday, has traditionally supported Chavez, but had a falling out recently.

The new congress will probably not rubber-stamp laws that increase Chávez’s power, but this does not mean Chávez will take it as a defeat. He has stripped of power the office of the mayor of Caracas when an opposition politician won two years ago and jailed the general who returned him to power after a coup; he still controls the courts and the majority of the states; he has nationalized private industries and the media; and the new National Assembly members won’t be seated until January, affording him time to push changes through.

Goldman Sach’s Alberto Ramos (link by subscription only) expects that Chávez “will probably resort to govern even more by decree which jointly with a friendly judiciary can contribute to debase the importance of the Assembly in the country’s institutional balance of power.”

Yet another factor is oil: Venezuela is the U.S.’s fifth-largest oil supplier. As its oil production continues to decline, Chávez may not have the financial muscle to back his thirst for power.

Will this strengthen the opposition and possibly lead to a more democratic outcome in the 2012 elections?

It is too soon to tell.

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Colombian terrorist Mono Jojoy, military commander and No. 2 guy of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), who also was believed to have been in charge of their cocaine-trafficking operations, was killed by the Colombian military last Tuesday, Sept. 21.

After evading justice for over a decade, the Colombian armed forces, with the help of American military training and technology, were able to locate Mono Jojoy through his boots. Jojoy, also known as Jorge Briceño, whose real name was Víctor Julio Suárez Rojas, was diabetic and needed special shoes since the diabetes affected the circulation on his feet.

According the Colombian newspaper El Espectador (in Spanish), Colombian intelligence intercepted an order for Mono Jojoy’s boots and placed a GPS chip, which started transmitting his precise location on Monday.

The ensuing raid on his camp was an all-out military operation, code name Sodoma (Sodom), involving dozens of aircraft and three tons of explosives. Following the raid, the Colombian military found 15 laptops, 94 USB devices and 14 hard disks, which will yield vital intelligence on the FARC’s operations.

This is a huge coup for Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos and the Colombian government and a most crippling blow against the FARC. Mono Jojoy was not only a symbol of the FARC, but also directly involved in the FARC’s military (allegedly in charge of of some 4,000-plus members), kidnapping and cocaine-trafficking operations, and left no clear successor.

Mono Jojoy’s body was identified through his fingerprints. He was wearing his Rolex and carried insulin in his pockets at the time of the raid.

Mono Jojoy had a prize on his head of U.S. $5million, and had been indicted in the U.S. for the murder of three U.S. citizens, drug trafficking and terrorist activities. Four people will share the reward.

UPDATE:

After I posted this article, Spanish newspaper ABC reported that General Javier Flores, in charge of the military operation, asserts that Mono Jojoy was found from information provided by an undercover officer that infiltrated the FARC's high command. This is even worse news for the FARC.

Fausta Wertz blogs at Fausta's blog.

(AP Photo)

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This just in:

Uribe Heir Santos Wins Colombia Presidential Vote By Landslide Over Mockus

Colombia’s Juan Manuel Santos won the country’s presidential runoff by a landslide, persuading voters with a pledge to continue Alvaro Uribe’s successes in beating back Marxist rebels.

With 92 percent of polling stations reporting, Santos has 69 percent to 28 percent for the Green Party’s Antanas Mockus. Santos will take over Aug. 7 from Uribe, who brought record growth and slashed by half the number of murders during eight years in office.

Today’s voting was marred by violence, after seven police officers were killed in a minefield laid by the National Liberation Army near the border with Venezuela. Three soldiers were also killed in a firefight with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, the country’s largest insurgency, in Meta province.

Fausta Wertz blogs at Fausta's blog.

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Hugo Chavez's former best buddy, Raul Baduel, has been sentenced to eight years in prison.

In case you don't recall, Baduel was:

one of the officers who rose up against the short-lived Carmona government during the April 2002 coup d'etat, when he was chief of the 42nd Airborne Brigade of paratroopers.

However, prior to the 2007 referendum, Baduel encouraged the Venezuelan people to vote - instead of staying home and abstaining - against the constitutional amendment that would allow Chavez to run for office indefinitely, and asked the military to allow the "NO" vote to stand. The people voted "NO." (The referendum was repeated last year and passed.)

Baduel was accused of "stealing funds of the armed forces, abuse of authority and crimes against military honor," he was jailed in April 2009, when Baduel issued a plea for democracy from his prison cell (video in Spanish), and has said that he was persecuted for joining the opposition:

He has now been found guilty of the charges. In addition to his prison sentence, Baduel is barred from running for office.

As the Wall Street Journal reminds us, "Mr. Chavez's government forbids citizens from making any incendiary comments that it deems threatening to peace and stability," even those who brought Chavez back to power.

Fausta Wertz blogs at Fausta's blog.

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Hold on to your laptops, Hugo Chavez has given birth to his first tweet:

Loosely translated, it means,

How you doin'? Appeared as I said: at midnight. Headin' to Brazil. And very happy to work for Venezuela. We'll triumph!

Chavez's latest public relations effort is, according to his Minister of Public Works, Diosdado Cabello (whose name means God given hair), due to the opposition's active use of Twitter to protest and ridicule the Venezuelan president:

"The opposition thinks it owns the social networks. They think Twitter and Facebook are theirs. We are taking the battle to them, and we are 7 million militants that will take Twitter."

Of course, three months ago Chavez himself was declaring that

"using Twitter, the Internet (and) text messaging" to criticize or oppose his increasingly authoritarian regime "is terrorism."

Can't wait for the "seven million militants" to "take Twitter", now that Hugo's in.

Fausta Wertz blogs at Fausta's blog.

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Bolivian President Evo Morales is holding a star-studded climate change soiree in Cochabamba, which he claims:

will give a voice to the poorest people of the world and encourage governments to be far more ambitious following the failure of the Copenhagen summit.

So concerned is Evo with the plight of the poor that he's buying himself a jet built for the Manchester United team:

Bolivia's Treasury Minister Luis Arce says the government is negotiating to buy a French Falcon 900 jet built for the needs of Britain's Manchester United. The price: $38.7 million.

The British soccer team declined to purchase the jet after it was finished, so Morales rushed to buy it, according to Agence France Presse, which also reports that Morales will have another jet, a $40 million Antonov BJ financed through a military credit from Russia.

Morales has been busy this month. While tightening his grip over the country following local elections earlier this month, Morales had recently accepted the third donation of military equipment from China.

Perhaps Evo will fly his Chinese friends and his celebrity friends to the inauguration of the Bolivian Space Agency's new satellite: China and Bolivia are working on a $300 million joint satellite project:

According to Bolivian Public Works Minister Walter Delgadillo, the satellite has a maximum capacity of the DFH-4 model that will enable it to cover not only Bolivia but also the whole Latin America.

China had previously helped Venezuela launch a satellite in 2008.

(AP Photo)

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Today's Washington Post asks, what can Argentina gain from another Falklands dispute?

YOU KNOW that an Argentine leader must be in political trouble if the subject of the Falkland Islands has come up again. In this case the beleaguered president is Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, whose populist administration in Buenos Aires has lost the support of most of the country. Hosting Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton in Buenos Aires on Monday, Ms. Fernández de Kirchner requested that the United States mediate Argentina's dispute with Britain over the islands, which lie about 400 miles off Argentina's southern coast but have been governed from London since 1833.

Ms. Clinton responded by urging the two sides to talk, while wisely sidestepping the mediation suggestion.

The WaPo points out that:

Such studied neutrality is in keeping with traditional U.S. policy on the Falklands -- though it's worth remembering that mistaken interpretation of signals from Washington helped produce Argentina's disastrous 1982 invasion.

Hillary also arrived just in time to back the losing team: Yesterday the Kirchners officially lost the congressional majority they had had in Congress for the past seven years, when the opposition parties formed a coalition:

In this case, it's hard to see why the Obama administration should throw any lifelines to Ms. Fernández de Kirchner, who hasn't shrunk from playing to anti-American sentiment around the region.

Unfortunately there is no sign that the White House and the State Department understand that their reckless stance on the Falklands is significantly damaging the relationship with Great Britain. I hope they wake up before it’s too late, and realize that America has no truer friend than the British people, and that siding with Britain’s enemies is a spectacular miscalculation that is fundamentally against the U.S. national interest.

Fausta Wertz blogs at Fausta's blog.

(AP Photo)

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If Hugo Chavez was not a virtual dictator of an important country in Latin America, I would say that he would be one of the funniest comedians in Latin America:

There is so much to chuckle about here, including addressing the Queen as if she controls British policy. Just in case you were wondering, though, the last time Argentina had any settlements in the Falklands was the 1830s. Now it is basically a huge sheep farm, with a population of about 3,000, all of whom speak English. So why care about the Falklands? You guessed it: Oil.

For more videos from around the world, check out the Real Clear World videos page.

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Tensions are flaring down south. Roger Noriega describes the scene:

In a private luncheon at a regional summit in Cancún yesterday, Colombian President Álvaro Uribe took his Venezuelan counterpart Hugo Chávez to task for imposing a de facto embargo on Colombian trade and investment. The Venezuelan dictator—who is known for his own bombastic declarations and wild accusations against Colombia—took offense when Uribe compared Chávez’s hostile treatment of Colombia with the embargo on Cuba. Chávez accused Uribe of dispatching assassins to kill him, and he threatened to storm out of the summit. According to diplomats who witnessed the event, Uribe then shouted at Chávez, “Be a man! You’re brave at a distance, but a coward face-to-face.” The Venezuelan responded by telling Uribe, “Vete al carajo!” the most polite translation of which is, “Go to hell!”

Ironically, this confrontation came at a summit of Latin American and Caribbean leaders intended to launch a “regional mechanism” that might serve as an alternative to the Organization of American States (OAS). Apparently, Latin and Caribbean diplomats think that a new forum—minus the United States and Canada—might advance their common interests more effectively. However, it is clear from the showdown in Cancún that Chávez is the problem.

(AP Photo)

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Following Pepe Lobo's inauguration yesterday, ousted president Mel Zelaya left the country and landed on the Dominican Republic.

Leaving his tin foil-lined room at the Brazilian embassy in Tegucigalpa, Zelaya flew to the island with Dominican president Leonel Fernández. The Dominican Republic made available two airplanes for Zelaya, his family, and several of his associates.

Zelaya plans to move to Mexico and take part in the Central American parliament (Parlacen).

Before departing Honduras, he swore, "I shall return."

Noticias 24 has a timeline of events (in Spanish) after Zelaya's ousting.

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By David D. Sussman

Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez is a fan of some books, and an opponent of others. In April of last year he made a very public presentation of Eduardo Galleano’s Open Veins of Latin America: Five Centuries of the Pillage of a Continent, gifting it to President Barack Obama at the Summit of the Americas. On the other hand, the annual CIA World Factbook is now a book that draws the Venezuelan leader’s ire.

Chávez criticized the latest addition of the World Factbook, focusing on its statement that his government “purports to alleviate social ills while at the same time attacking globalization and undermining regional stability." In his response he declared that indeed, his goal is to weaken the hegemonic influence of the United States in the region. Chávez considers the World Factbook’s comment a “declaration of war," once again drawing attention to the high level of tension in the region.

As an aside, the CIA World Factbook is published annually and provides detailed information about the people, economy and political situation of each country. Originally, it arose out of the National Intelligence Survey, a publication intended to systematize intelligence information following World War II. The Factbook was a summary published in classified form in 1962 and publicly in 1975. Interestingly, as evidence of the Cold War’s influence on the Factbook, until around 1990 there was a specific section among the country descriptions that focused on the status of the Communist party.

Speaking of books, the Venezuelan administration restricts imports of some foreign texts. It also established a series of government-sponsored bookstores that are known for their sale of left-leaning and revolutionary texts, and for their low prices. Upon entering one such store I found shelves covering Che Guevara and others dedicated to socialist principles. Alternative viewpoints did not exist – the bookstores appear to be yet another means of controlling information available to the general public.

Like this topic? Read more at FPA's Venezuela Blog.

(AP Photo)

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Having asked Central Bank director Martin Redrado to resign (which he didn't do, and then he appealed to the courts and congress), Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner is now picking a fight with vice-president and head of the Senate Julio Cobos

On Tuesday, the president said she has postponed a trip to China - one of her most important overseas visits this year - because she cannot trust the vice president to run the country while she's away.

Cobos, who as head of the Senate cast a deciding vote against a Fernandez plan to change farm taxes in 2008, has said Congress should debate the decrees.

The former governor was picked by Fernandez from the opposition Radical Civic Union party in 2007 and has said he plans to run for president in 2011.

“He has the right to be a member of the opposition, to disagree with the policies of the executive branch, but not from the post of the vice president,” Fernandez said.

Argentine debt tiff shines light on rebel VP

The turmoil at the central bank has heightened political tensions in Latin America's No. 3 economy and raised doubts about the cash-strapped government's plan to launch a $20 billion debt swap in the coming weeks.

Ms. Fernandez hopes the swap of defaulted bonds will allow Argentina to return to international credit markets eight years after a massive default.

Mr. Cobos, a 54-year-old civil engineer from the wine-making region of Mendoza, is under pressure to resign as vice president from some opposition leaders, who question him for remaining in the government.

The dispute over the reserves plan is testing Ms. Fernandez just as politicians in the divided ruling Peronist party and the opposition jostle for position ahead of next year's election.

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Yesterday a category 7.0 earthquake, the most disastrous in Haiti's history, hit the country at 4:53 p.m. and was centered about 10 miles west of the capital, Port-au-Prince. The director of the Salvation Army's Disaster Services in Haiti gave this eyewitness account:

Words cannot begin to describe the devastation that has taken place in Port au Prince, Haiti.

I am the Director of Disaster Services for The Salvation Army in Haiti, and I am from the United States. My wife and I have been in PAP since April, and have fallen deeply in love with the country and its people.

When the earthquake struck, I was driving down the mountain from Petionville. Our truck was being tossed to and fro like a toy, and when it stopped, I looked out the windows to see buildings “pancaking” down, like I have never witnessed before.

Traffic, of course, came to a stand-still, while thousands of people poured out into the streets, crying, carrying bloody bodies, looking for anyone who could help them. We piled as many bodies into the back of our truck, and took them down the hill with us, hoping to find medical attention. All of them were older, scared, bleeding, and terrified. It took about 2 hours to go less than 1 mile. Traffic was horrible, devastation was everywhere, and suffering humanity was front and center.

When we could drive no further, we left the truck parked on the side of the street, and walked the remaining 2 miles to get back to the Army compound. What I found was very sad! All of the security walls were down. The Children’s Home itself seems pretty intact, but our quarters, which is attached, are destroyed. Unliveable. The walls and ceiling are still standing – but so badly compromised that I wouldn’t even think of trying to stay there. All of the children, and hundreds of neighbors, are sleeping in our playground area tonight. Occasionally, there is another tremor – another reminder that we are not yet finished with this calamity. And when it comes, all of the people cry out and the children are terrified.

As I am sitting outside now, with most people trying to get a little sleep, I can hear the moans and crys of the neighbors. One of our staff went to a home in the neighborhood, to try to be of assistance to the woman who lived there. But she was too late.

The scene will be repeated over and over again. Tomorrow, we will begin the process of assessing damage, learning about casualties, and preparing for the future.
God bless Haiti.

Bob Poff
Divisional Director of Disaster Services in Haiti
The Salvation Army

This afternoon Le Monde reports (link in French) there are over 100,000 dead, in a country with a population of some 10 million people, and there are roughly 3 million people in need of aid.

The American Red Cross and the Salvation Army are already doing relief work in the country. You can donate here:
Salvation Army:

The Salvation Army is accepting monetary donations to assist in the effort via:

• Their paypal account.
• Online Credit Card Donations

• 1-800-SAL-ARMY

• postal mail at:

The Salvation Army World Service Office

International Disaster Relief Fund

PO Box 630728

Baltimore, MD 21263-0728

(*designate checks and money orders to ‘Haiti Earthquake’)

12:30am (1/13/2010) You can text “HAITI” to 90999 to donate $10 to American Red Cross relief for Haiti.

or through their International Response Fund.

Haiti is the poorest country in our hemisphere. They do not have the resources to bury 100,000 dead.

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By Melissa Lockhart

After the detention in Cuba last month of a U.S. government contractor distributing cell phones and laptops, Congress has called new attention to the secretive pro-democracy program that ballooned under the George W. Bush administration and funded this contractor’s mission on the island. House Representative Howard Berman (D-California) and Senator John Kerry (D-Massachusetts) in particular have brought the program under heat, calling for a review of its management and effectiveness.

Indeed, a full review is in order. The program budget increased more than tenfold between 2000 and 2008, from $3.5 million to $45 million. Use of program funds has oftentimes been sketchy: audits have revealed questionable expenditures and even embezzlement. Under the Obama administration support has more than halved for the pro-democracy Cuba program, to $20 million in 2009 and 2010, but a better monitoring mechanism is needed for as long as funding continues.

The program’s effectiveness in achieving U.S. goals of democracy on the island is up for grabs. Although blogs, Twitter and other Internet resources are expanding their reach and having an effect (as the Washington Post put it, these are “cracking the Cuban government’s monopoly on information“), U.S. government support for bloggers and dissident groups can be the kiss of death for some. Cuban law states that collaborators with the program can be punished by up to 20 years in prison. Some scholars, like Ted Henken of Baruch College, point out that the program undermines U.S. efforts to build trust with the Cuban government while tainting opposition groups on the island. Instead of credible voices of opposition, they are seen as traitors, mercenaries… U.S. puppets. And as the detention of the still-unnamed U.S. contractor illustrates, pro-democracy work is dangerous both for those that carry it out and for those who receive assistance from it.

Last week, by the way, U.S. diplomats were allowed to visit and speak to the detained U.S. contractor in Cuba. His name has still not been provided, and it is not clear what the future holds for him. (Will he be unilaterally released? Will he be used as a negotiating tool? Will the United States use his detention as reason to turn its back again on Cuba? I tend to lean toward number two.)

Read more at the Foreign Policy Association's Cuba blog.

(AP Photo)

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Dutch Foreign Minister Maxime Verhagen

Not satisfied with saying that the U.S. is going to invade Venezuela from Colombia, Chávez is now saying the Arubans are in on it, too:

Venezuela says U.S. drug-hunting flights violating airspace from Curacao

Venezuela's government said Thursday that U.S. military counter-drug flights from nearby Dutch islands are violating its airspace in preparation for an attack. A U.S. official denied the allegation.

A Venezuelan Foreign Ministry statement listed no examples of such violations, but it accused the United States of using "the colonial territories of Aruba and Curacao in preparation for a military aggression against Venezuela."

The Netherlands Rejects Venezuelan Accusations, and asked Chávez to explain the spying claims.

By the way, the U.S. has been using Aruba and Curacao for years as bases for unarmed drug surveillance flights. This is not a new development.

Expect more of the same nonsense out of Hugo as the Venezuelan economic situation worsens in 2010.

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While ascribing some gushing praise to the foreign policy of George H.W. Bush in my most recent NY Daily News column, one word kept running over and over again through my head: Panama. More specifically, how does one reconcile this unilateral action with what I believe and argue was one of the more sensible and multilateral presidencies in American history?

Well apparently, according at least to Jordan Michael Smith over at Foreign Policy, Amb. Thomas Pickering has in retrospect expressed similar reservations over the precedent set by Panama:

Like Panama, Iraq was a war of choice. The light American footprint that had achieved results in the small Central American country convinced figures such as Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld that the same strategy would work in Iraq. Furthermore, the ability of the United States to depose Noriega and then swiftly withdraw from Panama contributed to the belief that nation-building was unnecessary in Iraq. "Iraq in 2003 was all of that shortsightedness in spades," concluded Pickering. "After all, the defense secretary said we didn't want anybody else's help, we didn't need anybody's help -- we were going to do it all ourselves."

That sounds just like the strategy that worked in Panama, 20 years ago.

I find this argument a tad bit unpersuasive. While Washington's relationship with Noriega was certainly less than angelic or innocent, one of the primary justifications for the Panama invasion was to uphold the Torrijos-Carter treaties and maintain the blueprint for an eventual handover.

In other words, a timetable for an end to America's presence in the country had already been agreed upon prior to any military action. We went to war over an agreement, rather than agreeing to a war with no clear direction or endgame in mind. I believe the two to be different.

And we did, by the way--much to the chagrin of Rep. Dana Rohrabacher--stick to that timetable, as President Clinton handed over control of the canal in 1999. Contrast that with the 2003 invasion of Iraq, where the very mention of a timetable for withdrawal was considered tantamount to surrender.

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Mexican drug lord Arturo Beltrán Leyva, known as the Boss of Bosses, was killed Wednesday night after a two-hour grenade and gun fight with Mexican Navy forces. The Financial Times calls it:

one of the clearest victories for the government since it declared an all-out war against organised crime.

Last year Beltrán Leyva, known as "El Barbas" and his brothers had broken up with Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, eader of the Federation (which combined the Sinaloa and Juárez cartels), in a bloody drug war. The Beltranes then joined forces with the Gulf Cartel and the cartel's enforcers, the Zetas.

Beltrán Leyva had consolidated a drug empire in the state of (warning: gruesome photo at the link) Morelos, where he controlled 15 of the 33 municipalities. Whole sections of Cuautla, Jojutla y Cuernavaca were under his control, while he was headquartered in Cuernavaca after his January 2008 break-up with Sinaloa.

Following last year's outbreak of violence, Beltrán Leyva's wide-ranging criminal activities had been under pressure by Mexican authorities. The Washington Post reports:

Mexican authorities had been closing in on Beltrán Leyva in recent months, capturing and killing his junior associates. They raided a lavish party in the colonial town of Tepoztlan, near Cuernavaca, last week and killed three alleged Beltrán Leyva cartel members. Performing at the party was Ramón Ayala, a popular Texas-based singer, whose attorney denied that his client had any ties to organized crime. [On Thursday, a judge ordered Ayala jailed for up to 40 days pending investigation, the Associated Press reported.] In another near-miss, Beltrán Leyva associates were arrested after attending a baptism he hosted in Acapulco.

Beltrán Leyva was alleged to have masterminded a corruption racket involving high-level Mexican officials in the attorney general's office and federal police, including a former chief of the unit targeting organized crime, Noé Ramírez Mandujano. Ramírez is suspected to have taken almost $500,000 in bribes from Beltrán Leyva.

Mexican officials also hold Beltrán Leyva responsible for the assassination of federal police chief Edgar Eusebio Millán Gómez last year.

Mexican and U.S. drug officials had hinted for two months that authorities would soon capture some "big fish" in Mexico. The death of Beltrán Leyva follows a strategy pushed by officials on both sides of the border to go after his cartel's leadership.

The apartment where Beltrán Leyva was found was only one of several safe houses his cartel owned.

You can watch a Mexican TV news report (in Spanish) here.

Mexican authorities predict an increase in violence may be possible in the power struggle to take Beltrán Leyva's place.

Mexico's president Felipe Calderón praised the Mexican Navy's operation.

The Wall Street Journal has an interactive timeline of Mexico's war on drugs since Felipe Calderón took office in 2006. Associated Press has a time line of arrests, deaths of Mexican druglords. Last January I posted on the Mexican drug wars, and included a link to the 2007 CRS Report for Congress on Mexico’s Drug Cartels, which provides an overview of Mexican drug cartels and their operations.

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Both The Economist and Alvaro Vargas Llosa have looked at Brazil's desire to become a world-class diplomatic power and become a permanent member of the UN Security Council--and, how last week's visit by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad played in this ambition.

Neither one is favorably impressed with the fact that Lula invited Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for a state visit. One must emphasize that it was a state visit, not simply a visit by a delegation of 200 Iranian businessmen, and a state visit that was rescheduled after the initial outcry last May.

The Economist:

President Lula frequently talks about how important democracy is, and members of his government invoke their experience of exile or imprisonment at the hands of Brazil’s former military government. This sits awkwardly with reports that Iran’s government has sentenced to death five opposition activists since the protests that followed its disputed election.

Brazil risks overstepping the mark in its desire to be seen as an important country. Earlier this month, when Israel’s president, Shimon Peres, was in Brasília, President Lula talked about Brazil helping to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. His suggestion of a football match between Brazil and a mixed team of Israelis and Palestinians is nice enough. However, Brazil has failed to settle far simpler disputes between Argentina and Uruguay, Venezuela and Colombia, and Honduras’s political rivals. It has little chance of succeeding where more powerful countries have failed for so long in the Middle East

Brazil, a bewitching country, needs to take a deep breath. Its ambition ought to be focused on reforming its political system so prosperity can be something more than a combination of high revenue from commodities and some manufactured products, and social programs such as Bolsa Familia, a subsidy distributed to about 11 million poor families. The leaders need to tame their hubris before it pulls too far ahead of reality.

Combined with the misstep on Israeli-Palestinian relations, the hosting of deposed Honduran President Mel Zelaya in the Brazilian embassy in Tegucigalpa, and Iran's status as a state sponsoring terrorism along with its nuclear ambitions, one can only surmise that the country is not quite ready for that permanent Security Council seat.

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Porfirio Lobo Sosa, best known as Pepe Lobo, won yesterday's general election with a clear majority of 56 percent and over 60 percent of registered voters participating in the election.

Noticias 24 has a profile of Lobo (in Spanish): The 61-yr old father of eleven children (currently married to Rosa Elena Bonilla, mother of three of his children) and black belt in Karate is a seasoned politician who, as leader of the National Party, ran on an anti-crime platform in 2005 but was defeated apparently for his support of the death penalty. He served as president of the National Congress from 2002-2006.

Lobo owns large landholdings in Olancho, birthplace of deposed president Mel Zelaya, where he grows grains. He attended the University of Miami in Florida, where he studied business administration, and his political rivals say that he also studied in the Soviet Union--a charge Lobo has never denied but does not show on his CV.

Lobo is regarded by his supporters as conciliatory and open to dialogue. His campaign focused on reducing crime by strengthening institutions such as the National Police and the Public Ministry, promoting job creation and decreasing poverty by 10 percent.

Lobo appealed for unity during his acceptance speech,

"I am announcing a government of national unity, of reconciliation. There's no more time for divisions,"

"Honduras is a free, independent and sovereign country... We will not allow anyone's interference nor political compromises that may create division."

Peru, Costa Rica, Panama, the German parliament and Japan will recognize yesterday's vote. The European Union is also expected to follow suit.

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Noticias 24 and O Estado quote a source close to deposed President Mel Zelaya (who is still cooped up with his teddy bear in the tin-foil lined room at the Brazilian embassy in Tegucigalpa) saying that Zelaya may seek asylum in Nicaragua by January 27, when his successor is scheduled to be inaugurated as president.

Tomorrow the country's holding the presidential election. The election was scheduled and the candidates chosen while Zelaya was still in office. The U.S. will recognize the election.

A traffic accident involving a truck from the Armed Forces carrying election materials killed four people, three soldiers and one civilian (link in Portuguese).

While Zelaya's been asking his followers to boycott the election, zelayista candidate César Ham is still running and is not promoting a boycott. Candidate Pepe Lobo is ahead in the opinion polls.

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Staying in this tin foil-lined room at the Brazilian embassy in Honduras, deposed president Mel Zelaya has told President Obama that he's backing out of the agreement he signed two weeks ago:

Zelaya also rebuffed US efforts after the Honduran Congress failed to vote to reinstate him as president -- a crucial part of last month's US-backed deal to end the impasse.

Shortly after the coup the United States had demanded that Zelaya be reinstated before it would back an election, but Washington later shifted its position, saying it would support the outcome of elections even if Zelaya does not reclaim his post.

"We support the elections process there," State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said Thursday.

You can read Zelaya's rambling letter to Obama in English (rough translation), and in the original Spanish. He insists on being reinstated to power.

It remains for the US to insist that Zelaya abide by the accord he had agreed to and recognize the results of the November 29 elections as verified by international monitors.

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Hugo Chavez craves attention, and what best to get everybody's attention than to announce to the military and civil militias to prepare for war with Colombia? Especially when it may distract from the power outages, water rationing, a recession, 30% inflation and a huge crime rate?

Chavez used his weekly marathon program, Aló Presidente - which has to be broadcast by all licensed TV and radio stations in the country - to make the announcement,

“Generals of the armed forces, the best way to avoid a war is to prepare for one,” Chavez said in comments on state television during his weekly “Alo Presidente” program. “Colombia handed over their country and is now another state of the union. Don’t make the mistake of attacking: Venezuela is willing to do anything.”

Chavez is upset about the US-Colombia agreement through which the US Air Force and Navy will have more access to Colombian military bases for U.S. drug surveillance flights. He says he believes the US is preparing to attack Venezuela, and that the thought is keeping him awake at night. Chavez buddy, Bolivian president Evo Morales, didn't take long to side with Chavez and talked about calling a meeting of countries allied to Chavez to discuss the matter:

Morales said the meeting would aim to advance military and security cooperation among Alba’s member countries, including Cuba, Ecuador and Nicaragua.

Tthe reaction in Venezuela was not agreeable to Chavez's statement. Venezuelans oppose a conflict with Colombia by a margin of 4 to1. Venezuelan journalist Marianella Salazar scorned Chavez's insomnia and advised him to get a teddy bear.

Today Chavez attempted to soften his earlier statement, and claims that he was misquoted by the media: "Us, the Venezuelan military, are pacifists, and we prepare for war to ensure peace, that's what I said on Sunday."

At least until the next time Chavez needs a distraction from the chaotic domestic situation he has created.

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Here's a chronology of the Honduran crisis, as summarized by Agence France Presse (AFP) and Noticias 24 (my translation, found at the Noticias 24 website).

From left to right, above:
June:
APF:
28th: Coup d'etat, Zelaya removed from power.
Noticias 24:
28th: Zelaya attempts to carry a popular vote to call a referendum and change the Constitution.
200 troops enter his house in the early morning, capture him and expel him to Costa Rica.
Congress names its president, Roberto Micheletti, as new head of state.
The international community unanimously condemns the coup.
30th: UN General Assembly requests that Zelaya be restored to power.

July:
AFP
7th: Costa Rican president Oscar Arias, starts as mediator.
24th: Zelaya briefly steps on Honduran soil, but returns to Nicaragua.
Noticias 24:
2d: European Union ambassadors leave Honduras.
3d: OAS Secretary General José Miguel Insulza arrives in Honduras.
4th: OAS suspends Honduran membership.
5th: Honduran army prevents Zelaya's jet from landing in Tegucigalpa.
7th: Costa Rican president Oscar Arias becomes the crisis mediator.
9th: Arias meets separately with Zelaya and Micheletti in San José, Costa Rica.
18th: Arias proposes the San José Accord, which supports Zelaya's reinstatement. Micheletti's delegation rejects it, Zelaya's delegation considers the dialogue ended.
20th: The EU freezes 65.5 million euros of aid to Honduras.
24th: Zelaya briefly steps on Honduran soil, but returns to Nicaragua.

August:
AFP
31th: The electoral campaign starts for the November 29 elections.
Noticias 24:
25th: OAS mission to Honduras ends without Micheletti's support.

September:
AFP
21st: Zelaya secretly returns to Honduras and seeks refuge at the Brazilian embassy.
27th: Micheletti restricts civil liberties and silences opposition media.
Noticias 24:
3rd: US suspends aid for $30+ million.
10th: US suspends the visas for Micheletti and dozens of Honduran coup-supporting officials and businessmen.
21st: Zelaya secretly returns to Honduras and seeks refuge at the Brazilian embassy.
27th Micheletti restricts civil liberties and silences opposition media.

October:
AFP
5th: Micheletti admits the possibility of reinstating Zelaya; de facto government reinstates civil liberties, opening the possibility of dialogue.
7th: Zelaya's and Micheletti's delegates start a dialogue supervised by the OAS.
14th: They reach an agreement, which must be approved by both leaders.
Noticias 24:
7th: Zelaya's and Micheletti's delegates start a dialogue supervised by the OAS.
14th: They reach an agreement, which must be approved by both leaders.

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On Monday, President Felipe Calderon of Mexico replaced three of his cabinet members, including one of the top anti-drug fighting officials in the country, Attorney General Eduardo Medina Mora. The sacking of Medina Mora should not be seen as a change in course in Calderon’s war against the drug gangs. José Cárdenas of El Universal has pointed out that the replacement of Medina Mora has more to do with bureaucratic infighting and politics.

Furthermore, the news that Medina Mora is gone is not likely to come as a surprise to anyone in Mexico. It has been rumored for quite some time now that Calderon wanted to get rid of him (perhaps making him ambassador to Britain).

First, Medina Mora was a dead weight in the Calderon administration. The Attorney General was seen as responsible for the “suspicious tardiness” in bringing to justice those responsible for a childcare fire in the state of Sonora. Medina Mora also received a lot of bad publicity for the flimsy case made against three indigenous women accused of kidnapping six federal agents back in 2006. One of the women is just now set to be released this month after three years of sitting in a jail cell.

Second, and more importantly, Medina Mora has been at odds with Mexico’s top police official and a close ally of Calderon, Secretary of Public Safety Genaro Garcia Luna. The dispute goes back to when the two fought over what role the police would have in investigating federal crimes. According to Cárdenas, Garcia Luna did not believe that the Public Ministry under Medina Mora should have a monopoly on all investigations. Garcia Luna won the turf war this year when Calderon changed the structure of the federal police force, granting them more responsibilities. Medina Mora, on the other hand, simply never gained the respect from Calderon that Garcia Luna currently enjoys.

Whatever the case, Medina Mora was not dropped because of great ideological differences with his boss. Therefore, this cabinet change may not lead to many policy changes.

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Nicolas Sarkozy is back in Brazil, just in time to celebrate National Day in Brasilia. O Globo has a slide show of the celebration.

Sarko has a lot to celebrate. According to Bloomberg,

Brazil’s Senate last week approved a bank loan of 6.1 billion Euros ($3.3 billion) that the government will use to build five submarines and 50 helicopters in partnership with France.

The French will also be building a nuclear submarine for Brazil in the future. The total of that deal is estimated at $10 billion.

Additionally, the two countries signed a nuclear deal that would allow France's partially state-owned electric and gas utility, GDF Suez, to provide assistance to Electronuclear and Eletrobras to develop Brazil's nuclear power industry.

O Globo confirms today that France will be selling Brazil 36 Rafale fighter jets, which would be built by French aerospace company Dassault, for $2 billion. In exchange, France agreed to buy a dozen KC-390 military cargo planes, made by Brazil's Embraer. While Boeing's F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and Saab's Gripen combat jets were also shortlisted for purchase, France, in addition to having agreed to the KC-390s purchase has also agreed to technology transfer and building the jets in Brazil.

[Update:
A commenter at my blog contrasts the O Globo article with a report at Zero Hora which refers to the Rafale agreement as 'the intent of the Brazilian government to enter in negotiations to acquire" the jets.]

According to O Globo, as of 2020 Brazil will have the most powerful navy in Latin America, at the same time it develops its offshore oil resources.

As you may recall, Sarkozy has been cultivating business with Brazil for some time now. It's apparently starting to pay off.

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Hugo Chávez, during his stop in Iran, held hands with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and declared Iran to be "a true strategic ally, a staunch ally" to Venezuela:

Speaking to Venezuelan state TV on the phone from Tehran, Chavez defended Iran's "sovereign right" to pursue a nuclear program, which the West fears masks nuclear arms making. Tehran, despite three rounds of U.N. sanctions over its failure to halt uranium enrichment, persists in the pursuit, insisting the program is only for peaceful purposes.

"There isn't any proof that anybody can show that Iran is building an atomic bomb," Chavez said. "We're certain that Iran won't give in to any blackmail."

He said that Venezuela will also likely face such accusations in the future, as it is looking to develop "nuclear energy so that the Venezuelan people can also count on this marvelous resource for peaceful purposes."

In Syria, Chávez called Israel's government "genocidal" during a two-hour speech that was televised in Venezuela. Israel condemned the statement.

Chávez issued a written statement (in Spanish) today where he even managed to insult Protestants,

"Libya, Algeria, Syria, Belarus, Russia: Countries that go against the Yankee current and integrate, in their own way, as we do, the "Axis of Evil," a name that exudes the smells of reactionary Protestantism."

Chávez continues his 11-day tour with stops in Belarus and Russia, after visiting Libya, Syria, Iran and Algeria.

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Following a meeting of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton with deposed Honduran president Manuel Zelaya, the US State Department hardened its position on Honduras as it announced today it's terminating foreign aid to Honduras:

The Department of State announces the termination of a broad range of assistance to the government of Honduras as a result of the coup d’etat that took place on June 28. The Secretary already had suspended assistance shortly after the coup.

The Secretary of State has made the decision, consistent with U.S. legislation, recognizing the need for strong measures in light of the continued resistance to the adoption of the San Jose Accord by the de facto regime and continuing failure to restore democratic, constitutional rule to Honduras.

The question remains as to what will happen with $200 million in Millenium Challege funds. The board of the fund meets next week.

Very importantly, State Department spokesman Ian Kelly also announced during the briefing that "at this moment, we would not be able to support the outcome of the scheduled elections." The State Department says,

A presidential election is currently scheduled for November. That election must be undertaken in a free, fair and transparent manner. It must also be free of taint and open to all Hondurans to exercise their democratic franchise. At this moment, we would not be able to support the outcome of the scheduled elections. A positive conclusion of the Arias process would provide a sound basis for legitimate elections to proceed. We strongly urge all parties to the San Jose talks to move expeditiously to agreement.

Arias’s seven-point proposal would have a deposed president reinstated even as he has been charged with “crimes against the form of government, treason, abuse of authority, against the public and the State of Honduras” and providing him amnesty; forming a government of unelected officials; transferring power unconstitutionally among the branches of government; and the formation of an extra-constitutional commission composed of foreign officials which would be in charge of “compliance of these agreements,” as if Hondurans themselves could not. The Honduran Supreme Court ruled that any political agreement derived from the San José Accord should be in compliance with Honduras's laws and constitution and the country's rule of law.

Last Thursday Honduran president Roberto Micheletti had offered to step down if Zelaya also renounced his claim to the presidency.

In response to the State Department's actions today, Roberto Micheletti regretted that "the U.S. has taken the side of Hugo Chavez."

After the Honduran courts and electoral board had declared Manuel Zelaya's proposed referendum unlawful and unconstitutional, he had the ballots printed and flown in from Caracas.

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The Honduran Supreme Court rejected on Friday the San José Accord, which was brokered by Costa Rican President Oscar Arias. The Supreme Court insisted that all accords are subject to the country's Constitution.

Arias's seven-point proposal had called for deposed president Manuel Zelaya's reinstatement and amnesty.

The Honduran Supreme Court's ruling lays out nine items that directly address Arias's proposal. Item number 2 specifically reminds Zelaya that he's accused of

crimes against the form of government, treason, abuse of authority, against the public and the State of Honduras

Zelaya supporters in the country threw fire-bombs at a newspaper office last week and set fire to a fast-food restaurant. However, the supporters that had congregated at the Nicaraguan border are heading back to their homes. Last week Honduras ordered the expulsion of six Argentinian diplomats who back Zelaya, following Argentina's expulsion of the Honduran ambassador, who backs Zelaya. The Argentinian diplomats are confined to their embassy.

Zelaya is still canvassing for support outside the country. During his trip to Mexico this month, where he was received with state honors, he made a speech criticizing Mexican president Felipe Calderón, who initially supported Zelaya's return to power. Zelaya said, "It's better to feel like the president than to be the president, and I say this to Lopez Obrador". López Obrador, Calderón's rival, refers to himself as Mexico's "legitimate president." Following the speech, Mexican authorities denied Zelaya access to any media and escorted him to the airport.

Friday's Honduran Supreme Court ruling concludes by asserting that any political agreement derived from the San José Accord should be in compliance with Honduras's laws and Constitution and the country's rule of law.

This morning Organization of American States Secretary General José Miguel Insulza, along with seven other foreign officials arrived in Honduras to continue negotiating. The countries represented are Argentina (Jorge Taiana), Canada (Peter Kenneth), Costa Rica (Bruno Stagno), Jamaica (Kenneth Baugh), México (Patricia Espinoza), Panamá (Juan Carlos Varela), and Dominican Republic (Carlos Morales).

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I mentioned in a post last January that Iran is holding several of its citizens from being tried in Argentina for planning the 1994 bombing of the Argentine AMIA Jewish center in Buenos Aires, which killed 85 people.

Now one of those people, Ahmad Vahidi, has been selected for Defense Minister of Iran: The Guardian has the story,
Ahmadinejad chooses wanted man for cabinet
Iran's new defence minister sought by Interpol for 1994 bombing of Jewish centre

A former commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards has been nominated by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran's president, to head the country's defence ministry, despite being listed on Interpol's wanted register for the 1994 bombing of a Jewish cultural centre in Argentina.

Argentinian prosecutors joined Jewish groups last night in condemnation of Ahmadinejad's decision to propose Ahmad Vahidi for the senior cabinet post.

Vahidi has been on an Interpol "red notice" since November 2007, in connection with the car bomb attack on the Israeli-Argentine Mutual Association (AMIA) building in Buenos Aires that killed 85 people and injured 150 – the worst attack on a Jewish target outside Israel since the second world war.

Interpol's red notices are alerts to its 187 member nations. They are not arrest warrants but are sometimes interpreted as a request for apprehending a suspect.

At the time of the attack Vahidi, who is currently Iran's deputy defense minister, commanded a notorious unit of the Revolutionary Guards called the Quds Force. It is known for orchestrating Iran's overseas operations including working alongside Lebanon's Hezbollah militant group, which is accused of carrying out the Buenos Aires attack on the instigation of Iran.

Mr Nisman said that Mr Vahidi, who led a unit of Iran's Revolutionary Guard known as the Quds Force at the time of the attack, was accused of "being a key participant in the planning and of having made the decision to go ahead with the attack" against the AMIA.

"It has been demonstrated that Vahidi participated in and approved of the decision to attack AMIA during the meeting in Iraq on 14 August 1993", the prosecutor said.

Vahidi was deputy defense minister during Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's first term in office.

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Reports that the U.S. was planning a basing agreement with Colombia set off protests from the usual suspects.

Secretary Clinton addressed the issue with reporters yesterday after her meeting with Colombia's foreign minister :

The foreign minister and I also discussed the bilateral defense cooperation agreement that our governments hope to sign in the near future. This agreement ensures that appropriate protections are in place for our service members. It will allow us to continue working together to meet the challenges posed by narco-traffickers, terrorists, and other illegal armed groups in Colombia. These threats are real, and the United States is committed to supporting the Government of Colombia in its efforts to provide security for all of its citizens.

I want to be clear about what this agreement does and does not do. First, the agreement does not create U.S. bases in Colombia. It does provide the United States access to Colombian bases, but command and control, administration, and security will be Colombia’s responsibility, and any U.S. activity will have to be mutually agreed upon in advance. The United States does not have and does not seek bases inside Colombia.

Second, there will be no significant permanent increase in the U.S. military presence in Colombia. The congressionally mandated cap on the number of U.S. service members and contractors will remain and will be respected.

And third, this agreement does not pertain to other countries. This is about the bilateral cooperation between the United States and Colombia regarding security matters within Colombia.

Full text of the statements, plus a Q&A with reporters, here.

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On Thursday, Chavez Supporters Attacked Venezuela's Journalists

Twelve Venezuelan journalists handing out leaflets in favor of press freedom were injured on Thursday by supporters of leftist President Hugo Chavez.

Marcos Ruiz, a reporter for Caracas daily Ultimas Noticias, was punched and beaten with clubs by at least four assailants, colleague Gledys Pastrana told Efe.

She said Ruiz was taken to the emergency room.

All of the journalists who were handing out leaflets to motorists and pedestrians on a busy street in the capital are employees of the Cadena Capriles group, one of Venezuela’s biggest media companies.

Besides Ultimas Noticias, Capriles publishes two business newspapers: El Mundo Economia and Negocios, and the sports daily Lider.

The Chavez partisans arrived on the scene shouting “revolution” and “this street belongs to the people” and then pounced on the journalists, Pastrana said.

The beaten journalists were handing out flyers opposing the new education law that has a provision outlawing reports that "produce terror" among children or incite hate (a provision similar to the Special Law Project Against Media Crimes). The education law was approved on Friday morning among protests: The Ley Orgánica de Educación (Organic Education Law) was strongly opposed and demonstrators on both sides had gathered in front of the National Assembly building. Police fired tear gas into the crowd (BBC News video here).

After the National Assembly's approval of the law, Hugo Chávez condemned the violence against the journalists and declared that "the law will allow us to speed up and deepen the revolutionary process,"

"This law opens the way for the liberation education. There are many chains to break, the ones of colonialism and cultural backwardness, for the deep revolution, the creation of the new man and new woman, the socialist revolution."

On Friday, journalists demonstrated in support of the beaten journalists:

In turn, the state prosecutor, Luisa Ortega Díaz, refused to meet with the journalists who came to protest the beatings, claiming that "they behaved more as political spokesmen than as journalists, for which they should resign their jobs as journalists."

On Saturday, a suspect was arrested and charged for the Thursday beatings.

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Having decreed the closing of RCTV in May 2007 and theatened to close Globovision, Hugo Chávez is now pushing through laws that would limit broadcasting rights and make them subject to mandatory jail terms through a Projecto de Ley Especial Contra Delitos Mediáticos (Special Law Project Against Media Crimes).

The proposed law, which you can read here in Spanish (pdf file), includes all media and applies to not only owners and publishers but also reporters, freelancers and anyone making a statement that could be interpreted as (my translation) "any person who manipulates or distorts the news, creating a false perception of facts... as long as there is damage to social peace, national security, public order, or the mental health or public morals."

The charge carries a compulsory 2-4 year prison sentence.

Things are getting tough enough that even the UN is complaining. They specifically referred to the Globovision case:

An independent United Nations human rights expert today described the situation of justice in Venezuela as “worrying,” citing political interference with the work of judges and prosecutors in the South American nation.

Leandro Despouy, the UN Special Rapporteur on the independence of judges and lawyers, expressed particular concern over the removal of some provisional judges and prosecutors, without cause, without procedure and without effective judicial recourse.

“The right of every person to justice should include the existence of independent and impartial judges, and for this, the stability of judges is an essential element,” Mr. Despouy said in a news release.

He cited the case of Judge Alicia Torres, who says she was pressured by a superior to prohibit the head of the Globovisión television channel, Guillermo Zuloaga Núñez, from leaving the country and was dismissed after she refused to do so.

According to media reports, prosecutors have accused Mr. Zuloaga of usury and conspiracy to commit a crime – accusations stemming from the recent seizure of 24 new vehicles on his property. Mr. Zuloaga denies any wrongdoing, saying the accusations are politically motivated, and that President Hugo Chavez is using prosecutors and judges to bring trumped-up charges against prominent opponents.

The Projecto de Ley Especial Contra Delitos Mediáticos (Special Law Project Against Media Crimes) was presented to the National Assembly this morning by Venezuela's General Prosecutor Luisa Ortega Díaz. It is expected to pass.

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Rocket launchers sold to Venezuela went to FARC

Swedish-made anti-tank rocket launchers sold to Venezuela years ago were obtained by Colombia's main rebel group, and Sweden said Monday it was demanding an explanation.

Colombia said its military found the weapons in a captured rebel arms cache and that Sweden had recently confirmed they originally were sold to Venezuela's military.

The confirmation strengthens Colombian allegations that Hugo Chavez's government has aided the leftist Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, and exacerbated tensions between the neighboring nations over an imminent agreement to expand the U.S. military's use of Colombian air and naval bases.

President Alvaro Uribe complained over the weekend that if Colombia had kept quiet about the weapons "they'll fire them and obtain more and no one in the international community will halt their sale.

Now Colombia has announced that it's seeking to replace its business ties with Venezuela and Ecuador with new markets in Central America and the Caribbean countries, and

Además de los mercados de Centroamérica y el Caribe, los exportadores colombianos también buscarán nuevos socios en mercados como el de Estados Unidos, la Unión Europea y Canadá.

My Translation: In addition to the Central American and Caribbean markets, Colombian exporters will seek new partners in US, European Union and Canadian markets.

Right now would be an excellent time for Congress to finalize and approve the Colombian Free Trade Agreement, wouldn't it?

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A Chavez buddy has plans, and this time it's not Zelaya:

Nicaraguan leader seeks referendum for reelection

Nicaragua's President Daniel Ortega announced Sunday, on the 30th anniversary of the leftist Sandinista revolution he led, that he would seek a referendum to change the constitution to allow him to seek reelection.

Following in the footsteps of elected regional allies, Ortega told thousands of supporters here that he would seek a referendum to let "the people say if they want to reward or punish" their leaders with reelection.

His close leftist allies who have had rules changed enabling them to remain in power include presidents Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, Evo Morales in Bolivia and Rafael Correa in Ecuador.

In the last month President Manuel Zelaya in neighboring Honduras was ousted in a coup by his own military after seeking similar action.

However, disaffected Sandinistas say Daniel Ortega has become a dictator, accusing Ortega of abandoning the revolution while advancing personal power.

Now Ortega wants a referendum to extend his term. Call it the electoral wash-rinse-repeat cycle.

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Corruption at the Venezuelan National Guard, which controls "Venezuela's airports, borders and ports" and answers only to Chávez, among the reasons why Venezuelan cocaine trans-shipments have soared more than fourfold from 2003 to 2007:

U.S. Slams Caracas on Drugs

Venezuela is fast becoming a major hub for cocaine trafficking in the Western Hemisphere, according to a report written by the investigative arm of the U.S. Congress. The report from the nonpartisan Government Accountability Office is sure to raise tensions between Venezuela and the U.S. at a delicate moment in the two countries' often testy relations. ...

"A high level of corruption within the Venezuelan government, military and other law enforcement and security forces contributes to the permissive environment," says the report, scheduled to be released this month. Many of the drug shipments come from Colombian "illegal armed groups" such as the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, the report says, which the Venezuelan government provides with "a lifeline" of support and a haven within Venezuela. FARC is a communist guerrilla group.

In addition,

The biggest problem: corruption of Venezuelan officials at all levels, according to the report. Corruption within the Venezuelan National Guard "poses the most significant threat," the report says, because the "Guard reports directly to President Chávez and controls Venezuela's airports, borders and ports." In some cases, the report says, drugs captured by the National Guard and Venezuela's Investigative Police, who are often themselves involved in drug trafficking, aren't destroyed, but are taken by the officials or returned to drug traffickers.

The WSJ article also points out Chávez's involvement in Honduran politics and his support of ousted president Mel Zelaya, adding,

In the past few years, drug trafficking through Honduras has risen sharply, with many shipments of cocaine arriving in flights from Venezuela on their way to Mexico and the U.S., say officials in Tegucigalpa, the Honduran capital.

Hugo [Chávez] needs money for financing his “Bolivarian Revolution”, i.e., his desire to control all of Latin America’s politics. For that he needs money. A huge amount of money. The drug trade is one source.

You can read the GAO report here.

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Several sources have indicated that Argentina President Christina Fernandez Kirchner will be among the international delegation that will accompany ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya’s planned return to Honduras on Thursday. Interim President Roberto Micheletti has promised to arrest Zelaya should he try to return to his country.

The international community has been highly critical of the arrest and deportation of Zelaya by the military. For Fernandez, accompanying Zelaya gives her a chance to play a popular role in world politics that might offer a distraction from her own political problems at home.

** Her Peronist party suffered a huge setback this past week, losing a majority in both houses of congress.
** Her husband and predecessor, Nestor Kirchner, lost a congressional seat in Buenos Aires to a rival in the same party. This places him as a long shot to return to the presidency in 2011.
** Kirchner’s loss also forced him to resign as head of the Peronist party.
** Fernandez’ approval rating has dropped to 29 percent in recent weeks.
** Argentina has been hit hard by the world recession. Most critics of the administration believe that Fernandez moved up the recent elections four months early in an attempt to solidify power before the economy gets worse.
** The Kirchner brand, which once was highly popular during Nestor Kirchner’s term (2003-2007), has now lost its shine. The Kirchners are now seen as autocratic and unwilling to compromise with rivals.

A trip to Honduras may be a step in the right direction for Fernandez to regain the Kirchner magic. However, with a failing economy and an antagonistic congress, Fernandez may simply be out of luck.

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The expulsion of former Honduran President Manuel Zelaya by the Honduras military has sparked a lively debate over whether or not the takeover should be called a "coup". The reason for the debate is simple enough -- "coup" conjures images of a military junta seizing power by extralegal force and repressing all opposition akin to Argentina in the early 1980s. Defenders of the Honduran military action point out that this action was not extralegal and was, in fact, authorized by the legislature and the courts in response to Zelaya's own illegal attempt to extend his power in an imitation of his international mentor, Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez. Critics, however, believe that this is just a rhetorical shill to cover up some kind of bias against Zelaya's leftist politics.

What both sides miss is that a "coup" isn't always extralegal. In short, what is happening in Honduras may be an example of a coup that is not only legal, but mandatory. The oddness of this concept to American minds requires an explanation.

Civil-military relations in the United States are founded on assumptions both inside and outside the military that derive from the work of the late Samuel Huntington in The Soldier and the State. Under Huntington's ideal of "objective civilian control," the military is granted substantial autonomy over a professional sphere of managing the application of violence, but is given no political role. Various forms of "subjective civilian control" where the military becomes embroiled in civilian political struggles are argued by Huntington to be militarily deficient and presumed by most westerners to be morally deficient as well. Americans frequently assume that this ideal is universally shared as an intrinsic component of a democracy.

But this American presumption is more a pretension than an objective description of how societies organize themselves politically. While it is true that American and European consultants make a priority of encouraging developing democracies to adopt Huntingtonian ideals (NATO's "Partnership for Peace" is a notable example, as is the reformed curriculum of the Western Hemispheric Institute for Security Cooperation, formerly-known and still-protested as the "School of Americas"), some countries explicitly endow their military with a role in maintaining democratic governance. For example, in Turkey, the military is constitutionally empowered to act as a check on the potential for Islamic parties to undermine the secular foundations. In 1962 and 1980, the Turkish military undertook coups that were not only seen as legal, but mandatory and necessary. This military influence has continued to function in less aggressive forms during more recent political crises involving the banning of Islamic parties and the selection of the head-of-state.

Like the Turkish military, Latin American armies have a long tradition of political involvement. While in some cases, most notably Argentina, this tradition has been intentionally deconstructed (the disaster of the "dirty war" and defeat in the Falklands War provided a strong impetus for change), officers have continued to hold a widely-accepted political role in other countries. It is worth remembering, for example, that in spite of his pretensions of outrage over this coup in Honduras, Venezualan dictator Hugo Chavez was himself the leader of a coup attempt in 1992.

As more news continues to filter out of Honduras, it appears as if the Honduran military was specifically authorized by a court order to arrest a President that was judged to be out of control. The fact that the American military would never be so authorized should not distract us from the possibility that legal authorizations for military interventions into politics might exist in other countries' constitutional arrangements. The takeover in Honduras might be, in fact, a legal coup.

The author is a Ph.D. candidate in political science at the University of Minnesota, Twin Cities. His dissertation forces on variations in the political and policy-making roles of the U.S. military.

(Cross-posted at PoliGazette)

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Today Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has stated that the “North American empire and the extreme right" are behind the arrest of Honduran President Manuel Zelaya.

And again,

Behind these soldiers is the Honduran bourgeoisie, the rich that convert Honduras into a banana republic, and into a political and military base for the North American empire (my translation).

Yeah, that’s it. With chaos in Iran, American soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan, a nuclear North Korea, and a faltering economy, US interests include destabilizing a poor Central American country for military and political purposes.

The official response of the United States has been one of condemnation, albeit a lighter tone than heard around the world. Reuters has reported on the reaction from foreign governments. Let’s just say, the coup plotters aren’t getting a lot of love.

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Honduran troops have arrested president Manuel Zelaya, who then was taken to an air base outside of Tegucigalpa.

AP reports

President Manuel Zelaya's private secretary told the AP that Zelaya was arrested and brought to a base on the outskirts of the capital, Tegucigalpa.

An AP reporter saw dozens of green-helmeted soldiers surround the president's house Sunday morning and then later jump in trucks and drive away, according to the report. About 60 police continue to guard the house, it said, adding that the president did not appear.

Noticias24 reports that four units of 200 soldiers stormed the presidential residence at 6 a.m.

Electricity has been cut off in the capital, and it is rumored that Zelaya has been flown out of the country.

UPDATE:
Honduran daily La Prensa reports that Zelaya is now in Costa Rica. The Honduran Congress will be holding an emergency session today.

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In today's Wall Street Journal,

Honduran President Manuel Zelaya's push to rewrite the constitution, and pave the way for his potential re-election, has plunged one of Latin America's poorest countries into a potentially violent political crisis.

A day after Mr. Zelaya fired the head of the country's armed forces, hundreds of troops on Thursday deployed around the Congress, presidential palace and airport in Tegucigalpa, the country's capital. It wasn't clear whether the troops were responding to orders from Mr. Zelaya, or Honduras' other civilian and military powers, all of which oppose the president.

Most recently, rewriting the Constitution is one of the trademarks of Chavista-style regimes like Ecuador and Bolivia, but the maneuver is not limited to them.

There is strong opposition to the referendum:
* When the armed forces refused to distribute the ballots, Zelaya fired the chief of the armed forces, Gen. Romeo Vásquez, and the defense minister, the head of the army and the air force resigned in protest.
* Yesterday the Supreme Court ordered by a 5-0 vote that Vásquez be reinstated.
* Honduras's Supreme Electoral Tribunal ordered authorities to pick up all the ballots and electoral material, which were held by the country's air force.
* The country's Attorney General requested yesterday that Congress oust Zelaya.
* The courts have declared the referendum unlawful. Last Tuesday the Congress passed a law preventing the holding of referendums or plebiscites 180 days before or after general elections. Congress has also named a commission to investigate Zelaya.

Zelaya insists on holding the referendum and refers to these actions as "a technical coup". UN General Assembly president Miguel D'Escoto - the same guy who declared Fidel Castro "the closest thing we have to a saint" - denounced Zelaya's opposition as staging a coup d'etat against Zelaya, a sentiment voiced also by Fidel Castro and Daniel Ortega. Hugo Chavez declared that "we are not going to watch with our arms crossed the goings-on in Honduras," and insisted "we will do what we will have to do so the sovereignty of the Honduran people will be respected."

Now the Honduran Congress requested that the Organization of American States withdraw its election observers sent for the Sunday referendum, since their presence would legitimize a vote declared illegal by the Supreme Court.

All the same, Zelaya insists, "Sunday's referendum will not be stopped."

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The first version of weenie diplomacy wasn't going down too well, so the July 4 invites to Iranian diplomats were rescinded. Now, not surprisingly, the administration is trying the next best thing:

US and Venezuela to restore ties (h/t Gateway Pundit)

The normalisation of diplomatic ties "will take place in the coming days, and as soon as the ambassadors have resumed their functions we will move forward to a more fluid communication," Nicolas Maduro, the Venezuelan foreign minister, said on Wednesday.

President Barack Obama plans to return an ambassador to Syria, filling a post that has been vacant for four years and marking an acceleration of Washington's engagement with the Arab world, the White House said on Wednesday.

* Direct IranAir flights from Tehran to Caracas, with stops in Damascus, which started in March, 2007.
* The December 2008 report from Italian daily La Stampa on how Iran is using Venezuela do duck UN sanctions by using aircraft from Venezuelan airline Conviasa to transport computers and engine components to Syria for use in missiles.
* Hezbollah's increased presence in Venezuela.
* Hezbollah adopting Chavez as a hero.
* Reports of Venezuela and Bolivia providing Iran with uranium (see prior post).

And, of course, Chavez's unflinching support for Ahmadinejad, while showing great disrespect for President Obama.

Can't have the Iranian diplomats over for hot dogs? Then kiss and make up with their friends.

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During his Sunday Aló Presidente show, which by law has to be broadcast on all of the licensed TV and radio stations in the country, Hugo Chávez reaffirmed his support for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who he refers to as " Iran's great president,"saying:

"We send a greeting to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran't great president, to Ayatollah Ali Hamenei, and to the Iranian people. We ask the world to respect Iran because they are trying to undermine the Iranian revolution's strength."

"We ask the world for respect. Ahmadinejad's triumph is a victory in full order. They're trying to stain Ahmadinejad's victory, and by doing so they aim to weaken the government and the Islamic revolution. I know they won't be able to do it."

He also claims to have congratulated Ahmadinejad over the phone last week, and his government issued a statement rejecting "the ferocious and unfounded campaign of discredit that was activated by foreign powers against Iranian institutions."

He did not specify who "they", or who those "foreign powers" are.

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Peru-Bolivia relations are hanging by a thread, opined one Peruvian senator this past week. Although neither country is threatening to cut diplomatic ties with the other, the causes of the conflict are ideological and are unlikely to subside in the near future.

First there is the back and forth over the Bagua incident, where at least 34 Peruvians were killed in a showdown between the police and a group of Amazonian Indians. The latter were blockading a road that leads into the Amazon region which President Garcia would like to open up to foreign investors. President Evo Morales of Bolivia has called the government crackdown “genocide.”Morales is also fundamentally against opening up the Amazon. In a letter to indigenous leaders, Morales states that “free trade agreements break up harmonious human relationships with nature; they commodify natural resources and national cultures; they privatise basic services; they try to patent life itself."

Peru responded to the genocide comment by recalling its ambassador to Bolivia back to Lima for consultation. The government has stated that there is no excuse for Morales to refer to the Bagua incident as genocide since a United Nations special rapporteur on the situation of human rights and the fundamental freedoms of indigenous peoples declared this past week that no genocide has occurred. The Garcia government sees the Morales administration as meddling into Peruvian sovereignty and has even implied that Bolivia has manipulated the Peruvian indigenous groups in order to stir them to action.

Despite the outcry, the Garcia administration was forced to repeal the two decrees that were the cause of the crisis in the first place. On Thursday, Congress passed the bill repealing the decrees by a total of 84-12. President Garcia even admitted that it was a mistake not to consult the heads of the indigenous groups prior to implementing the decrees. This may signify that the political elite in Peru are coming to terms with the fact that indigenous groups in Peru are much better organized politically than they were in the past.

Garcia and Morales have never been on good terms since both came to power in 2006. Garcia was highly offended when Morales openly sympathized with Garcia’s main opponent, Ollanta Humala, in the 2006 elections. Humala, who comes from Incan descent, beat Garcia in the first round of voting but was knocked out in the second round when corruption allegations surfaced right before the elections.

Garcia and Morales have also knocked heads on granting political asylum to each others’ nationals. This past May, Peru granted political asylum to three former Bolivian cabinet officials accused of involvement in the killing of 63 protestors in the Andean city of El Alto in 2003 during the Sanchez de Lozada administration. The protestors (mostly Aymara Indians) were frequently blocking access to the airport as well as to oil and gas supplies. After Morales (who is also an Aymara Indian) came to power in 2006, Bolivia indicted 17 former government officials for the 2003 incident. Former President Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada, who fled to the United States, was tried in absentia in May.

In 2007, Bolivia granted political asylum to Walter Chavez, a former member of the Peruvian revolutionary group Tupac. Chavez was facing charges of terrorism by the Peruvian government. At the time, he was working as a political aide for Morales.

The divide between Garcia and Morales is deep. Morales opposes Garcia’s push for a regional trade pact with the European Union and also criticizes Peru’s free trade agreement with the United States. Garcia is an economic liberal, while Morales is a Bolivarian leftist. If Peru’s large indigenous population continues to mobilize, then right-of-center parties may not last long in Peru. In the meantime, however, it is hard to see how Peru-Bolivia relations improve.

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Today James Tarranto posts,

'Those Palestinian Animals'
The Jerusalem Post reports that some Iranian dissidents claim the Tehran regime has imported Palestinian terrorists to help crush the opposition:

"The most important thing that I believe people outside of Iran should be aware of," the young man went on, "is the participation of Palestinian forces in these riots."

Another protester, who spoke as he carried a kitchen knife in one hand and a stone in the other, also cited the presence of Hamas in Teheran.

On Monday, he said, "my brother had his ribs beaten in by those Palestinian animals. Taking our people's money is not enough, they are thirsty for our blood too."

It was ironic, this man said, that the victorious Ahmadinejad "tells us to pray for the young Palestinians, suffering at the hands of Israel." His hope, he added, was that Israel would "come to its senses" and ruthlessly deal with the Palestinians.

The Post includes an apposite disclaimer: "Amid the violence, confusion and government restrictions on communication, the accuracy of conflicting accounts is hard to ascertain." But certainly these claims are no less credible than Roger Cohen's "reports" about happy Iranian Jews.

I have not been able to find any actual evidence to confirm these rumors. The ties between Iran and Venezuela are many, and strong as ever. However, evidence of Chavez's backers in Iran is yet to be found.

As to the issue of future Venezuela-Iran relations: I expect that Iran will continue to expand its influence in the hemisphere, regardless of any electoral outcome.

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There is wide speculation that Mexican drug traffickers may be setting up shop in Guatemala in light of President Calderon’s war against organized crime. A recent article in the LA Times, “Drug Violence Spilling Into Guatemala,” highlighted the increasing presence that the Zetas and the Sinaloa cartel are having with the crime-ridden Central American country. The transfer, however, may be more indicative of the adaptable nature of drug trafficking than of any real success of Calderon.

Since 2008, there have been at least 30 members of the Zetas arrested in Guatemala. The Zetas, former Mexican special forces turned drug traffickers, have been working with members of Guatemala’s special forces, the Kaibiles. In a recent raid that left five anti-drug agents dead, Guatemalan forces retrieved eight anti-personnel mines, 11 M60 machine guns, bullet proof vests and two armored cars that investigators say belong to the Zetas. There were 3,800 bullets and 563 grenades recovered that defense officials say once belonged to the Guatemalan military.

Guatemala seems like a logical choice for drug traffickers wanting to escape the heat of President Calderon’s war. It has all the characteristics of a country where drug lords can hide with impunity. High corruption and weak institutions have ravaged Guatemala since it ended a 36-year civil war in 1996 between the military and leftist political groups. Poverty is rampant; less than 10 percent of the population owns 70 percent of the land. This means that rich drug lords will find no shortage of peasants (and government officials) willing to help out for a few extra bucks.

Criminals and gangs already operate within Guatemala with impunity. Most Guatemalans have no faith in the police to end crime. According to the UN, fewer than 5 percent of all crimes even go to trial. Guatemala has a paltry police force of only 20,000 officers. In last year alone, there were over 6,000 homicides in Guatemala which experts say were mostly drug-related.

Furthermore, Guatemala is going through a political crisis right now that could possibly end in an all-too-familiar military coup. On May 10th, Rodrigo Rosenburg, a Harvard-educated lawyer, was gunned down while bicycling on a busy avenue. Fours days before his murder he made a video in which he began by saying, “If you are watching this message it is probably because I have been murdered by President Álvaro Colom…” Rosenburg claims that the Guatemalan president has been funneling drug money through some of the social organizations that his wife runs. President Colom, who in 2007 became the first leftist to win the Guatemalan presidency since the CIA ousted Jacobo Árbenz in 1954, must defend himself against these charges as well as involvement in the murder if he wishes to stay in power. Guatemala is already approaching failed statehood. Any political crisis may only hasten its decline.

The United States government has apportioned $10.6 million of the multiyear $1.4 billion Merida Initiative to go to Central American countries. Guatemala has already received its first installment of $10.6 million. However, some of the same arguments that were made against sending money to Mexico can be more accurately made against Guatemala. First, with so much corruption, how can the United States be sure that the money is being used properly? Second, will a militarized approach that has been the focus of Plan Colombia and the Merida Initiative be successful in ending drug trafficking in Guatemala?

Calderon’s crackdown in Mexico has no doubt led traffickers to find different routes to the United States. However, the United States and Latin American countries have been successful in shutting routes before (the Caribbean route through Miami in the 1980s). With so much money to be made, traffickers have shown the ingenuity to simply find different ways to get to the United States. The latest interest in Guatemala among drug lords is only in keeping with the adaptable nature of the business.

Meanwhile, Guatemala teeters towards becoming the next Mexico.

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Yesterday, Mauricio Funes broke the twenty-year dominance of right-wing power in El Salvador by becoming the first candidate from the former Marxist guerrilla group, the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN), to win the presidency. On hand at the inauguration was Secretary of State Hillary Clinton who has indicated that the Obama administration is committed to “a new approach to the region.”

This is no small change. During the 1970s and 1980s, the United States was committed to financially supporting the Salvadoran military who was fighting a brutal insurgency led by the FMLN. After 12 years of fighting over 75,000 people were left dead and a quarter of the population fled the country. This is why today Salvadorans represent the second largest Latino group in Southern California (second to Mexicans).

After a peace agreement was signed in 1992, the FMLN moderated and became a legitimate political party. However, they could never beat the conservative Arena Party (National Republican Alliance), who up until now has been in power since 1989.

This past March, 46 Republican congressman signed a letter to Secretary of State Clinton, stating that “an electoral victory of the FMLN could bring about links between El Salvador and the regimes in Venezuela, Iran, Cuba, and other states that promote terrorism.” During the Bush administration, senior officials often voiced their opinions about politics in Central America. Under the Obama administration, the United States seems to be charting a new path. The press in El Salvador recognizes this. One article in recent days about Hillary Clinton’s views of Funes is titled “No Queremos Imponer Ideas, Queremos Aprender (We do not want to impose ideas, we want to understand).”

It is too early to tell how Funes will govern. He has tried to divert Arena criticism that he will align with leftists Hugo Chavez and Daniel Ortega. He often compares himself, instead, with Barack Obama and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. In fact, both Chavez and Ortega were noticeably absent from Funes’ inauguration.

More interesting will be how American policy adapts if Funes does align with Chavez and Ortega. Republicans have criticized President Obama for conducting a “listening tour” to try to win back American favor with the rest of the world. El Salvador could be a test for American policy.

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Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva announced today that he has no intention of running for a third term in next year's election.

Brazil's Constitution states that presidents can only hold office for two consecutive terms, but Lula's popularity, and the health of his chief of staff, Dilma Rousseff had generated speculation. Rousseff, the most likely candidate for Lula's Worker's Party, is currently undergoing chemotherapy at Sao Paolo's Syrian-Lebanese hospital for lymphoma.

Lula, who is visiting Turkey, expressed confidence in Rousseff's recovery and encouraged her to not stop working.

In Colombia, however, this week the Colombian Senate approved a referendum that would amend the Constitution to allow president Álvaro Uribe to run for a third term. Like Brazil, Colombia's constitution limits presidential terms to two consecutive terms. The 62-to-5 vote was missing 26 opposition senators who walked out in protest.

Supporters of a third term collected 5 million signatures last year, and the lower house approved a measure that would require Uribe to sit out a term before being able to run again in 2014; the uppor house measure approved yesterday would allow him to run again next year. The constitutional change would require a minimum turnout of at least 70 percent of Colombia's eligible voters, but first both measures would have to be reconciled, and then approved by the Constitutional Court before there is any referendum. Even with a 70% turnout, Uribe would need "50% plus one" votes.

While Uribe is very popular and is credited for defeating the narco-terrorists, there are many arguments against his running for a third term, particularly since he would be perceived as yet another democratically-elected Latin American head of state who stayed on to undermine the country's institutions.

Adding to the controversy, one of the sponsors of the signature drive was David Murcia Guzmán, allegedly a mafia money launderer, who is currently in jail.

Uribe has not announced publicly whether he would run again. Will he? Time will tell.

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On Sunday, May 10, Rodrigo Rosenberg set out to ride his bicycle in Guatemala City and was shot and killed by unknown gunmen.

He was scheduled to be the guest of journalist Mario David García's radio show, Hablando Claro, on Monday to talk about the murder of Rosenberg's clients Khalil Musa and his daughter Marjorie.

Musa, a prominent businessman, and his daughter were killed last March. No one has been charged on those two murders.

Rodrigo Rosenberg claimed that Musa, his client, had been murdered because he had refused to participate in corrupt business deals at Banrural, one of Guatemala's largest banks, after Musa had been named to the bank's board by Guatemalan President Álvaro Colom.

During Rosenberg's funeral, the media received a statement - first as an audio, later a video - where Rosenberg blames Colom, Colom's wife Sandra, Colom's private secretary Gustavo Alejos, and businessman Gregorio Valdez for his own murder. The Wall Street Journal has the part of the video with subtitles, which starts with Rodrigo Rosenberg saying,

"If you are hearing or seeing this message it's because I was assassinated by President Álvaro Colom, with the help of Mr. Gustavo Alejos and Mr. Gregorio Valdez."

Along with the video, a letter allegedly signed by Rosenberg lists the accusations against Colom.

Mario David García says he filmed the video with Rosenberg, and said he is now worried about his own life.

So far there is no evidence to support Rosenberg's allegations.

President Colom has vehemently denied any links to the murder. While there are calls for his resignation, Colom will not step down, and stated he has requested the help of the FBI and UN agency International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG, Comisión Internacional Contra la Impunidad en Guatemala). The CICIG was created in 2007 to fight widespread corruption in the country.

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According to this report at Spanish daily El País, Venezuela is now serving as sanctuary for the FARC's top leaders.

The article states that the Colombian Minister of Defense has pointed out that the top FARC leaders are not in Colombia, which makes their arrest difficult. The Colombian MoD did not speculate further as to their whereabouts.

However, El País does speculate that FARC Secratariat members 'Iván Márquez', 'Timochenko' and 'Joaquín Gómez', plus 'Grannobles', another FARC leader, are hiding in Venezuela (my translation, bold print from original article):

With nearly 200,000 kilometers of common border, most of it jungle or wilderness, it is nearly impossible to combat the guerrilla without joint action from both armies. But there is not only ideological affinity between the [Venezuelan] Bolivarians and the FARCs: there's rampant corruption. The Venezuelan military and police gave into the temptation of enriching themselves with narcotraffic money. Narcos and the FARC buy their wills in order to cover up their cocaine exports. It's no wonder that Venezuela has become a key stopover for the Colombian drug on its way to the United States and Europe.

The article from El País came up after Colombian president Alvaro Uribe urged Chavez to help destroy the FARC. Chavez flat-out refused, saying that it's not his war.

Just last Thursday the Venezuelan Foreign Minister had vowed to collaborate with Colombian authorities in the search for members of the FARC that killed eight Colombian soldiers and then allegedly fled to Venezuela last week.

Earlier this week Chavez had blamed Colombia for a helicopter crash that killed 18 members of the Venezuelan army. During his 'Alo Presidente TV program Chavez accused both Colombia and the US for the accident:

"¿Cuántas vidas nos ha costado patrullar la frontera? Vean ustedes lo que nos cuesta el conflicto interno de Colombia, que es alimentado, y hay que decirlo, por las corrientes guerreristas de EEUU, por los perros de la guerra que andan inventando guerras y conflictos para vender armas, alimentado por el narcotráfico."

"How many lives will patrolling the border cost us? See for yourselves what Colombia's internal conflict is costing us, which is fed, it must be said, by the US warmongering, by the dogs of war that go around inventing wars and conflicts in order to sell weapons, fed by the drug traffic."

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On Monday JTA and Terra reported that Iranian news agency IRNA announced that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had canceled his upcoming state visit to Brazil, which was scheduled for May 6 at President Lula’s invitation.

Bloomberg News also reported that Iran’s Ahmadinejad Postpones Latin American Trip Indefinitely.

Terra's article stated that following up on the IRNA announcement, Terra contacted the Brazilian President's office, the Foreign Minister and the Iranian Embassy, all of which did not know of the cancellation. Indeed, by mid-afternoon O Globo quoted Ambassador Roberto Jaguaribe: "We continue to prepare normally for the visit." O Globo also reports that Hassan Qashqavi, spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, confirmed the visit and added, "we seek active cultural, economic and political relationships with Latin American countries."

However, by late afternoon O Globo's top headline was that Brazil's Foreign Office confirmed that Ahmadinejad's visit scheduled for this week had indeed been canceled, and that Ahmadinejad had requested that it be postponed until after the Iranian elections in June. No reason was given for the cancellation.

Ahmadinejad was scheduled to be traveling with 110 representatives from 65 Iranian companies.

On Sunday thousands of demonstrators in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paolo from Jewish, Christian, human rights, gay, and women's organizations protested Lula's invitation to Ahmadinejad.

The photo above was taken by Brazilian blogger David Bor during yesterday's demonstration in Rio. The large banners read, "Mr. President, explain your invitation," while the smaller ones denounce Iran's homophobia, lack of freedom of the press, women's oppression and racism.

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Evo Morales has declared himself a Marxist-Leninist, during an interview with Argentinian daily Clarín saying that that is no reason for a country to be expelled from the Organization of American States, as Cuba was:

“No se puede entender que por motivos ideológicos alguien sea expulsado de la OEA. Yo también soy marxista-leninista ¿y qué, me van a expulsar?”, subrayó Morales al diario Clarín, de Buenos Aires.
(my translation:) "One can not understand that anyone would be expelled from the OAS for ideological reasons. I am a Marxist-Leninist, too, so what? Are they going to expel me?"

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The Latin American front page story on the international media last week? Fernando Lugo's paternity suits.

Every news outlet, from Le Monde to O Globo carried the story: Lugo publicly asked for forgiveness in having sired a child with Viviana Carrillo, age 26. The child is now nearly two years old. Following her suit, Lugo accepted paternity and the child now bears his last name.

According to court records, the affair with Carrillo started when she was sixteen years old and he was bishop of San Pedro while he sometimes stayed at the home of her godmother, where she lived. Bishop Ignacio Gogorza of Encarnación revealed that Lugo had administered the sacrament of Confirmation to Carrillo. The court papers state their relationship was already in progress.

In his apology, Lugo stated (my translation),

"I am a human being, and therefore nothing human is alien to me."

Homo sum: humani nil a me alienum puto.

Promiscuous? That appears to be the case with Lugo, who until last year was still subject to a vow of chastity, which he clearly ignored.

Continue reading "Paraguay's Prolific Padre" »

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The public relations campaign towards easing the Cuban embargo continues to build up.

We've had the Lugar report, the Congressional Black Caucus trip to Cuba and their adorational attitude towards Fidel Castro, and an endless number of polls.

Here's the latest:
Americans Steady in Backing Friendlier U.S.-Cuba Relations

Overall, Gallup Polls regarding U.S. relations with Cuba find Americans generally accepting of the U.S. taking a friendlier stance toward the island nation, as has been true over the past decade. However, Americans do distinguish between different specific policies toward Cuba. The fact that a solid majority support re-establishing U.S. diplomatic relations with Cuba -- and have consistently done so for the past decade -- suggests that Obama's first step in this direction was likely well-received by the American public. Moves toward making it easier for all Americans to travel to Cuba will likely find majority support among the American public as well. Ending the trade embargo will be a tougher sell and likely a partisan battle.

My father's principal argument for lifting the ban was simply that restricting Americans' right to travel went against the freedoms that he had sworn to protect as attorney general. Lifting the ban, he argued, would be "more consistent with our views as a free society and would contrast with such things as the Berlin Wall and Communist controls on such travel."

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As I have mentioned before, Hugo Chávez is consolidating power around himself. He is now persecuting the opposition.

Manuel Rosales, mayor of Maracaibo - an elected position - is seeking political asylum in Peru. Rosales, the best-known opposition leader in the country, is a member of the 'Un Nuevo Tiempo' (A New Time) Party and was governor of the state of Zulia prior to his election as mayor of Maracaibo. He is accused of illicit enrichment. As the Washington Post reminds us, last October Chávez stated "I have decided to make Manuel Rosales a prisoner," after which the investigations against Rosales started. Chávez has sworn, "I will crush him."

Why did Rosales have to leave the country? The Washington Post, again,

Asdrúbal Quintero, a legal adviser to Rosales, said by telephone from Maracaibo that Rosales had considered showing up at a pretrial hearing Monday to argue that the money in question was earned legally through his agricultural business.

But Quintero said the opposition leader decided to flee after Ismael García, an anti-Chávez lawmaker in the National Assembly, announced that he had obtained a draft of a sentencing document against him. The document, García said, showed that Rosales was to be sentenced to a 30-year prison term.

Rosales is not alone.

Retired General Raúl Baduel, who brought Chávez to power following the 2002 attempted coup and later was instrumental in defeating Chávez's constitutional referendum in 2007, was arrested at gunpoint on April 7, pending corruption charges. He issued from prison a plea for Venezuelans “to save democracy,” which was recorded by his son, Raúl Emilio Baduel, with his cell phone. You can watch the video (in Spanish) here.

Raúl Emilio Baduel was detained in Trinidad and later released, "because of information they had received about him" by unnamed sources. Upon returning to Venezuela, Raúl Emilio was strip-searched at Maiquetía airport. Authorities also went through his laptop.

Henrique Capriles Radonski, governor of the state of Miranda, is also prosecuted after government legislator and Chávez supporter Darío Vivas called for him to be investigated on corruption charges. Capriles has been opposed to the new Capital District Law enacted by Chávez last month.

Henrique Salas Feo, governor of the state of Carabobo, is being investigated for "promoting secession" after speaking of organizing a movement to defend regional autonomy.

César Pérez Vivas, governor of the state of Táchira, may have his victory annulled and a new election might be held.

All these governors have opposed the takeover of the transportation hubs.

Meanwhile, in Caracas, Mayor Antonio Ledezma has been ousted from his office by squatters and Chávez has created a "vice president for Caracas." Chávez created a new Capital District, effectively removing the city’s most populous borough from Ledezma’s jurisdiction. Former Minister for the Environment and staunch Chavista Jacqueline Faría, upon accepting the post, stated that Caracas is the seat of public powers and that it would be "uncomfortable" for the head of state to be surrounded by governors who oppose him. Daniel Duquenal quotes Faría describing her job as,

will have to care and supervise all services so that the capital inhabitants have a better quality of life, the new socialist life.

Journalist and author Teodoro Petkoff, former Communist and ex-guerilla, who is the editor of newspaper Tal Cual, is also under investigation for allegedly failing to report taxes on his mother's estate in 1974.

The list keeps growing.

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Mitt Romney is apparently not a fan of Obama's "wasn't me" doctrine:

At last week’s Summit of the Americas, President Obama acquiesced to a 50-minute attack on America as terroristic, expansionist, and interventionist from Nicaraguan president Daniel Ortega. His response to Ortega’s denunciation of our effort to free Cuba from Castro’s dictatorship was that he shouldn’t be blamed “for things that happened when I was three months old.” Blamed? Hundreds of men, including Americans, bravely fought and died for Cuba’s freedom, heeding the call from newly elected president John F. Kennedy. But last week, even as American soldiers sacrificed blood in Afghanistan and Iraq to defend liberty, President Obama shrank from defending liberty here in the Americas.

Let's imagine you're Alex Rodriquez stuck at a wedding party with some overweight, drunken loudmouth who berates you about how you're a lousy baseball player because you struck out a few times in the clutch. Now, you could stand up and knock the guy out, cause a huge scene, alienate the guests and get sued. You could argue with the guy that you're in fact a great baseball player and a few strike outs can't outweigh that fact (he'll argue back, of course, and it will devolve into a shouting match). Or you can smile and nod and let the blowhard run his mouth and continue making millions of dollars and living the life that everyone envies.

All three scenarios end with A-Rod being a great baseball player. One ends with him in some hot water and some legal bills, one ends with his reputation slightly diminished, the other is forgotten ten minutes after it happens.

And just to bring this back to some policy grounds. President Bush spoke frequently about freedom (it's being on the march, it being the mission of the U.S. to spread). In his tenure, according to Freedom House, the number of nations classified as free rose from 85 to 89. During the tenure of President Clinton, whom, I will assume, Mitt Romney does not consider a paragon of foreign policy leadership, the number of nations classified as free rose from 75 to 85.

So there is little correlation in the data between a willingness to talk a great game and the ability to birth new democracies.

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Viewers familiar with Seinfeld remember Festivus, the ceremonial airing of grievances. Wikipedia reminds us,

The holiday includes novel practices such as the "Airing of Grievances", in which each person tells everyone else all the ways they have disappointed him or her over the past year. Also, after the Festivus meal, the "Feats of Strength" are performed, involving wrestling the head of the household to the floor, with the holiday ending only if the head of the household is actually pinned.

Preliminary to this year's Festivus was President Obama's brief stop in Mexico. Pres. Obama carefully avoided pointing out that Mexico's decades, perhaps centuries' long corruption and disregard for the rule of law had much to do with the thriving drug cartels, and his administration stands by the "90% fallacy," which FactCheck.org and others have looked into and found lacking. There is consistent evidence that the drug cartels are purchasing weapons and military-grade armaments from Central America and the international weapons trade; ignoring this will not improve the drug wars. Additionally, the US has served as the pressure valve for Mexico, since millions of Mexicans who want to live and work in peace move here. Little, if any, credit was given to the US for that during Pres. Obama's visit.

The Festivus, however, didn't get rolling until Pres. Obama arrived in Trinidad. There was a slight difference from the classical Festivus: the airing of grievances went only in one direction.

First Pres. Obama walked across a hotel meeting room to meet Hugo Chavez, who just last month was calling the US a "genocidal, murderous empire" and was telling Obama to go wash his rear end. Chavez, who is cracking down on his political opposition at home and callls for the end of the American "empire" abroad every chance he gets, told Pres. Obama, "I want to be your friend," while government-owned Venezuelan media immediately spread the photos of the handshake.

The Festivus airing of grievances continued with Daniel Ortega's fifty-minute long inflammatory diatribe where Ortega complained about the US's "terroristic aggression in Central America." In the spirit of Festivus, Obama joked,

"I'm very grateful that President Ortega did not blame me for things that happened when I was 3 months old."

Having pinned the head of state to the ground, the rest of the Summit coasted right along. Indeed, a Festivus festivity like no other.

Chavez, upon returning from the Summit of the Americas, reviewed Venezuela’s new anti-aerial weaponry received from Russia, and declared the Summit “one of Venezuela’s greatest victories” (Video 2) , all to the Cuban Communist salute, “Homeland, socialism or death, we shall win!”

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Amid heavy security, President Obama arrived in Mexico where he will hold a press conference with Mexican President Felipe Calderón; then head to Trinidad and the Summit of the Americas. This will be Obama's first trip ever to Latin America.

Andrea Mitchell interviewed Calderón:

During the Mitchell interview, Calderón again talked about American blame for drug trafficking. Let's hope that during this afternoon's visit, Calderón, who wants more American money and resources to combat the drug cartels, understands that America did not cause Mexico's decades-long problems of corruption and disrespect for the rule of law which fostered the present situation.

MSNBC speculates on the trip:

As for the rest of the trip after today -- the Summit of the Americas in Trinidad -- look for three story lines to emerge: One is Cuba. Just how hard will the other Latin American leaders criticize the president for what they believe is not much change in Washington's Cuba stance?

Second is anti-Americanism. Many of the emerging political leaders in the region attained power by bashing the U.S. Will the President confront this issue like he did in Europe? Anti-Americanism has always been stronger in Latin America than anywhere else.

And thirdly, there's Hugo Chavez.

Obama will ease further restrictions on Cuba. How far will he go on this trip remains to be seen, but I fully expect that he will effectively end the embargo by year's end with the help of Congress.

When it comes to anti-Americanism, he will embark on the Apology Tour Version 2.0, in very much the same vein as he did in Europe. I agree with Ray Walser that the President must make clear that

the US remains committed to the tenets of liberal democracy, competitive markets, free trade, and the rule of law.

As for Chavez, Obama will avoid photo ops of any sort where Obama is not the center of attention; Chavez or anyone else included.

It will be an interesting trip, for sure.

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The Fifth Summit of the Americas is coming up next week, on April 17-19 in Trinidad-Tobago. The Summit's theme is “Securing Our Citizens’ Future by Promoting Human Prosperity, Energy Security and Environmental Sustainability.” It will be interesting to watch what the Obama administration has planned for the Summit regarding Cuba.

As readers may recall, last February the Lugar Report concluded that "progress could be attained by replacing conditionality with sequenced engagement, beginning with narrow areas of consensus that develop trust," and recommended changing US policy towards Cuba. Following the report, in March the omnibus spending bill changed travel restrictions on American citizens with family in Cuba to once a year, and last week the Wall Street Journal reported that President Obama plans to lift U.S. restrictions on Cuba, allowing Cuban-Americans to visit families there as often as they like and to send them unlimited funds.

This week the Congressional Black Caucus visited Cuba and reportedly met with Raul and Fidel Castro, who they lavishly praised. As with the Lugar delegation, members of the CBC did not meet any dissidents or any members of Cuba's pro-democracy movement. However, CBC recommended that the embargo be lifted.

Following the CBC's return, CNN released poll results stating that two-thirds of Americans surveyed think the U.S. should lift its travel ban and 71 percent of those polled said that the U.S. should reestablish diplomatic relations with Cuba.

On Thursday the Cuban American National Foundation released a report advocating change in the US's relations with Cuba, a drastic change from their prior hardline stance. The

Since the end of the Cold War our policy toward Cuba has remained static, reactive and focused on responding to developments following the demise of Fidel Castro. That policy, in our opinion, does not advance or promote the best interests of the United States or of the Cuban people; it relegates the U.S.’s role to that of passive observer rather than active supporter of the process of democratization for one of our closest hemispheric neighbors.

The recommendations listed herein chart a new direction for U.S.-Cuba policy, one that is guided by a deep understanding of the Cuban people, the impact of five decades of totalitarian rule, and a firm belief that the tides of change are swept in by the grass roots efforts of common people who have acquired confidence in their abilities and feel empowered in their responsibilities. Our recommendations are a break from the past because they seek to adapt to the realities of the present, which require a measured and incremental path that allows for adjustments along the way based on empirical evidence and evolving dynamics on the ground in Cuba.

Clearly, American attitudes towards relations with Cuba have changed.

In the island, however, the European Union's decision last year to lift sanctions against Cuba,

Cuban dissidents also vehemently opposed the lifting of the sanctions, believing that this action would “punish” the Cuban people and allow Havana to continue violating human rights. According to the leaders of the dissident group Agenda for Transition, any action taken by the EU to normalize relations with Cuba would be understood by Cuban authorities as affording legitimacy to the government’s recent actions and would “[punish] those who fight for democracy.”

While stating that it would be counterproductive for the summit to focus on Cuba, Davidow said that Obama may announce the easing of travel restrictions and remittances. How will that be different from the April 4 announcement remains to be seen.

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When Felipe Calderon became President in December 2006, he immediately declared war on the drug lords. He has staked his presidency (as well as the congressional elections coming up in June) on the government’s ability to return a sense of security to Mexico. Presently, there are over 45,000 troops and 5,000 federal police deployed to hot spots around Mexico. This past week Calderon’s army was hard at work, taking down some tough characters.

The problem is that Calderon is not the only commander-in-chief of an army in Mexico. All of the major drug trafficking organizations have at their disposal sicarios, or enforcers. This trend started when Osiel Cardenas, the former head of the Gulf cartel (presently sitting in a Houston prison), convinced several members of Mexico’s special forces to quit the army and help the Gulf cartel solidify territory. When Cardenas was arrested and subsequently extradited to the United States in 2007, the Zetas started flying solo. Their expertise of special operations has made them a formidable foe of the Army regulars.

This past week the military was able to kill a Zeta boss in Zacatecas. Israel Nava Cortes was responsible for establishing Zeta control in several states in Central Mexico. It was rumored that Nava Cortes was Guatemalan. However, representatives from the federal police dispelled this rumor, stating that Nava Cortes was Mexican.

The confusion over Nava Cortes’ nationality comes after reports suggest that the Zetas have been working closely with the Guatemalan special forces (known as kaibiles). The reports suggest that the Zetas, as well as the Sinaloa cartel, have been trying to establish alternate routes from Colombia through Central America. Mexican and U.S. maritime operations have put intense pressure on the drug cartels at Mexico’s coasts.

The Zetas are not the only sicarios in Mexico. This past week also saw the arrest of 21 enforcers for drug trafficker “El Teo” Garcia. They were arrested while trying to pull off murders of two federal police agents in Baja California. Reports indicate that the weapons confiscated during the arrest had been used in no less than eight other homicides in Mexico.

Garcia used to be a lieutenant in the Tijuana cartel. However, in early 2008 he had a falling out with one of the heads of the Tijuana cartel, Fernando Sanchez Arellano (“the Engineer”). Sanchez believed that Garcia had caused too much attention to be drawn to the Tijuana cartel due to Garcia’s penchant for kidnapping physicians. Garcia supposedly fled the city in April, but is rumored to have returned in August, since the high violence levels have returned this fall. He is now unofficially aligned with the Sinaloa cartel in an effort to destroy his former comrades.

Despite the successes in Baja California, the bloodshed continued in Chihuahua. There was at least eight “narco-executions” this past week. The tortured body of a man was found in a center for drug rehabilitation in Ciudad Juarez. There was also between 15 and 20 federal agents that were accused of abuse of power and complicity in the drug trade. Chihuahua continues to lead the country in drug deaths with 590 in 2009 alone.

Meanwhile, in Congress the Chamber of Deputies will begin discussion Monday on whether to decriminalize small time marijuana use. The forum will bring together experts from around the government and private sector. The forum is being called mainly because of the belief of many experts in Mexico that the prohibitionist policies have not produced the desired effects.

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Former Peruvian president Alberto Fujimori has been found guilty of ordering killings and kidnappings during the war with "Shinning Path" Maoist guerrillas, and sentenced to 25 years in prison. Fujimori is the first democratically-elected Latin American president to be found guilty of human rights crimes in his own country.

Fujimori was tried for ordering the 1991 killings at the Barrios Altos area of Lima, where 15 people died, and the killings at La Cantuta University in 1992, along with the kidnappings of journalist Gustavo Gorriti, a correspondent for Spanish daily El País, and businessman Samuel Dyer, who were abducted to the basement of the army's Intelligence Service.

Perú21.pe (h/t A Colombo-Americana) has a video of the judge reading the verdict while Fujimori takes notes. The judge stated that all charges were proved beyond reasonable doubt.

The Perú21 website's article states that Fujimori's sentence was read at 9 a.m. amid intense security. The prior night there were vigils and demonstrations by both Fujimori supporters and the families of the victims. Two thousand policemen were on duty in the area of the Diroes (Dirección de Operaciones Especiales, or Special Opreration Director) building.

The trial lasted 16 months. He had fled to Japan in 2000 while he was still president when his administration collapsed from corruption charges, and went to Chile in 2005, where he was arrested by Chilean police and extradited to Peru in 2007.

Fujimori was in power from 1990 to 2000. He dissolved congress in 1992 and reinstated it in 1995, winning re-election in 1995 and 2000. During his presidency

He cut the inflation rate from 7,650 percent in 1990 to 3.5 percent in 1999, according to Peru’s National Statistics Institute, by eliminating subsidies and price controls, floating the currency and selling off money-losing state companies in the early 1990s

Fujimori, whose daughter is a member of Peru's congress, announced he will appeal the sentence.

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Mexico has longed complained about the ease with which drug lords can obtain high-powered weapons from the United States. Understanding the domestic political restraints to stricter gun control laws in the United States (Mexico’s gun laws are much stricter), Mexican and American officials seem to be opting for plan B: better monitoring at the border.

Following a high-profile visit from Hillary Clinton last week, Attorney General Eric Holder and Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano both went to Mexico to meet with their counterparts and to discuss arms control and anti-narcotics cooperation. Sec. Napolitano announced plans to spend more than $400 million to enhance surveillance equipment and entry ports along the border. Mexico, for its part, will expand a pilot program launched in Matamoros that calls for greater inspections for trucks entering into Mexico. Sec. Holder tried to assure his Mexican counterparts that the loose American gun laws would not impede the United States from attacking the illegal trafficking of arms.

Mexican Attorney General Eduardo Medina Mora said that Mexico and the United States have decided to share information and to work together to investigate and fight arms smuggling. However, President Felipe Calderon, from the G-20 summit in London, emphatically rejected the possibility of any joint military operations with the United States. Mexicans remain highly suspicious of the American military, a view that goes back to the Mexican-American war from 1846-48.

Secs. Holder and Napolitano were greeted in Mexico on Thursday with the news that Mexican authorities had captured one of the top drug lords for the Juarez Cartel. Vicente Carrillo Leyva, 32, was captured while exercising in a park near his home in Mexico City. He is the son of Amado Carrillo Fuentes, the former leader of the Juarez Cartel who died in 1997 during plastic surgery. Despite the success of Carrillo’s capture, Mexico’s message remains the same. If the United States continues to arm drug traffickers, then Mexico’s efforts will be in vain.

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Bloomberg's headline, Correa Threatens Jail for Spreading Rumors on Ecuador Currency, points to the story-behind-the-story:

Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa said that people spreading rumors about the introduction of a new currency instead of the U.S. Dollar will be jailed.

Rumors of a new currency threaten to destabilize the economy, Correa told reporters today at the presidential palace in Quito. In December, he denied rumors of a forced closure of banks.

“This president guarantees to you that there is no plan whatsoever to exit dollarization,” he said. “It’s another vile calumny by eternal opponents who hope to win a few votes in the next elections.”

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Following up on the Lugar Report recommendations,

Today the Wall Street Journal reports that President Obama plans to lift U.S. restrictions on Cuba, allowing Cuban-Americans to visit families there as often as they like and to send them unlimited funds.

The $410 billion omnibus spending bill that Congress approved last month changed travel restrictions to once a year. That bill was followed by a controversial letter from Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to Sens. Menendez, Nelson and Martinez involving agricultural travel restrictions.

Aside from saying in today's announcement that President Obama "plans to lift restrictions" to allow Cuban-Americans to visit families there as often as they like, the timing is interesting, too:

The timing of the announcement is unclear, but several Cuba experts have speculated that it could come ahead of this month's Summit of the Americas in Trinidad and Tobago.

I was talking to Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) last Wednesday. He specified the conditions for lifting the embargo: I quote his words directly,

“If the Cuban government were to release all political prisoners, allow freedom of expression, and allow a true electoral process, then we could see lifting the embargo.”

On the island, the news of the easing of travel restrictions to Cuba by Americans has been greeted warmly. The Cuban media, however, remained silent.

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Hugo Chávez is visiting Doha, along with 11 other South American leaders, who, and 22 leaders of the Arab League seek to find common ground ahead of the G20 summit that starts on Thursday. While the Doha meeting is held in Qatar, Saudi Arabia is the only Arab League country that will be present at the G20.

As he has previously stated, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is pushing for the reform of international organizations. Chile's Michelle Bachelet called for the Arab and South American nations to show that "we are walking together." Hugo Chávez called for "the final fall of the American empire," as he usually does.

Chávez joined the Arab League in rejecting the arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court on Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir for alleged war crimes in Darfur. Even though Venezuela is a signatory to the ICC since 1998, Chávez insists that the ICC “has no power to make a decision against a sitting president, but does so because it is an African country, the third world.”

Not one to demure, Chávez then went further, and invited al-Bashir to Caracas (my translation):

"Today I talked to al-Bashir and I asked him what risks does he run when he travels around here. I invited him to Caracas but told him, 'I hope you don't have any problems over there'."

Update:

I played the audio of Chávez speech in Spanish and translated it to English during my morning podcast. You can listen to it here.

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Gordon Brown was visiting Brazil when, during a joint press conference with Lula, the Brazilian president came out and blamed "white people with blue eyes" for the world financial crisis. According to SkyNews, Downing Street says the remarks were meant for "domestic consumption", but I must respectfully disagree.

Brown was visiting Brazil in preparation for next week's G20 meeting to be held in London, which Brown will chair.

By morning, the Financial Times, The Independent and The Times are quoting Lula's words. The Times:

“This was a crisis that was fostered and boosted by the irrational behaviour of people who were white and blue-eyed, who before the crisis they looked like they knew everything about economics, but now have demonstrated they know nothing about economics,” he said, mocking the “gods of wisdom” who had had to be bailed out. “The part of humanity that is responsible should be the part that pays for the crisis,” he added.

“This is a crisis that was caused by people, white with blue eyes. And before the crisis they looked as if they knew everything about economics,” he said. “Once again the great part of the poor in the world that were still not yet [getting] their share of development that was caused by globalisation, they were the first ones to suffer.

“Since I am not acquainted with any black bankers, I can only say that this part of humanity that is the major victim of the world crisis, these people should pay for the crisis? I cannot accept that. If the G20 becomes a meeting just to set another meeting, we’ll be discredited and the crisis can deepen.”

in the debates concerning the rules governing international trade, energy, the environment, and the redesign of the international financial system.

Bearing in mind that the G20 is about to start next week, and Lula is pushing for the the world’s biggest economies to provide $100 billion to boost global trade, in addition to greater regulation of financial markets and an anti-protectionism message, Lula's words are not words meant exclusively for domestic consumption. Instead, they are meant to drive the message that the world's poor people should not be forced to pay for the global financial crisis. Witness his words,

His colourful language served as a reminder of the diplomatic challenge Mr Brown faces to forge agreement among the 20 largest economies. “Our meeting in London has to be spicy, it has to have a bit of heat,” said the Brazilian leader — in stark contrast to Mr Brown’s repeated claims of an emerging international consensus.

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In another move to further consolidate power around Hugo Chavez, the Venezuelan military took control of major airport and maritime hubs and occupied facilities that were previously controlled by the states. Some of the states are governed by the opposition. The decree signed last week by Hugo Chavez also transferred control over major highways.

Late last week the government had ordered the arrest of opposition leader Manuel Rosales, mayor of Maracaibo, Venezuela's second-largest city where the largest port is located.

Rosales will be tried on charges of "illegal enrichment" in Caracas, not in his hometown, where thousands of his supporters staged a huge rally during the weekend.

Today the military presence increased at La Fría and San Antonio airports. Noticias 24 reports that when announcing the takeover, Chavez declared that "we have begun the reversal process over everything that meant the dismemberment of national unity, the territory, and sovereignty, because prior governments fractured the country into pieces." Of course he had to blame the US, "the empire's divide-and-conquer strategy, carried by the pettiyankees" (Chavez's word for Venezuelans who favor the US) "that expropriated the people" has plummeted "with this reversal, which is part of the unification process which will strengthen the nation."

Also today, Chavez ordered the creation of a state company to manage the country's seaports and another for its airports. The new companies, called the Bolivariana de Puertos and Bolivariana de Aeropuertos and which will be part of the Infrastructure and Housing Ministry, "have to work under socialist guidelines and seek the development of the regions in which their respective seaports and airports operate," as decreed by Chavez. The decrees will become law once they are published in the Official Gazette.

Critics say the move will limit the powers of state governors, who previously collected revenue from tariffs they imposed at airports and seaports under their administration.

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Former governor of Puerto Rico Aníbal Acevedo Vilá has been declared not guilty on all nine counts of corruption after a trial where the defense did not call any witnesses and 10 people indicted with Acevedo had plead guilty before the case went to court.

Here are copies of the original indictment (PDF files) and the second indictment.

Puerto Rico Ex-Governor Is Acquitted of Graft

The former governor, Aníbal Acevedo Vilá, along with 12 associates, had been charged with participating in an elaborate scheme to pay off more than $500,000 in campaign debts going back to 2000. The criminal indictment made public last March also accused Mr. Acevedo of using campaign money to pay for several family vacations and for $57,000 worth of “high end” clothing.

The trial lasted a month, and though prosecutors called about 30 witnesses and the defense called none, the jury made its decision quickly and unanimously.

Authorities last year accused Acevedo and 12 associates of participating in an illegal scheme to pay off more than $500,000 in campaign debts.

One by one the associates began to plead guilty, leaving only Acevedo and Inclan to stand trial. One co-defendant agreed to testify against Acevedo in exchange for having charges against her dropped.

Prosecutors presented some 30 witnesses, while defense attorneys surprised the courtroom earlier this week when they rested their case without calling a single person to testify. Acevedo's lawyers urged the judge to dismiss the case for lack of evidence.

In November, Acevedo lost to Fortuno in his bid for a second term. A month later, Barbadoro dismissed 15 of 24 charges against Acevedo, ruling that U.S. federal prosecutors improperly interpreted election laws.

The AP has a list of Key events in the case against Puerto Rico's ex-governor.

Acevedo, a Democrat, is the only governor to have faced federal charges since the island became a Commonwealth. He lost his bid for re-election last November in a landslide to Luis Fortuño, a Republican who was the island's Resident Commissioner in the US Congress.

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Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega is back in the news.

The first item has to do with 1,051 SA-7 air defense missiles left over from the Sandinista-Contra war of the 1980s. The National Assembly had blocked former President Enrique Bolaños from making good on his promise to destroy the missiles. Ortega insists the missiles are still fire-ready after nearly thirty years, but will reopen talks with the US to destroy 651 of them in exchange for US medical supplies, should the U.S. create the proper "conditions.'" Nicaragua will "keep 400 missiles for our aerial defense.” said Ortega.

The second item has to do with last November's municipal elections. Watchdog group Ethics and Transparency found electoral fraud and violations to 10 articles of Nicaragua's Electoral Code, while the ruling party claimed "an overwhelming victory." Riding in this dispute is $62 million in frozen U.S. development aid:

Business leaders worry that if Washington decides to permanently cut its aid under the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), other European countries and international lending institutions would follow, spelling disaster for the hemisphere's second-poorest nation behind Haiti.

The MCC, which has already contracted more than $90 million of the original $175 million compact awarded to Nicaragua in 2005, will meet in June to make its final decision on the remaining $62 million yet to be allocated for infrastructure and landtitling programs.

The third item was clearly meant for domestic consumption but made it to the international news, via Venezuela's Noticias 24 (my translation): Ortega calls the US "cheapskate" over aid to fight drug trafficking: During a speech for 254 officers of the National Police, Ortega stated that last year the National Police had seized $370 millions' worth of drugs originating from Colombia and destined to the US, plus 12,000 weapons. Remarking that the US only provides Nicaragua with $1.4 million to fight drug traffic, Ortega requested that the US send Nicaragua half of the $370 million.

As if.

But that's not what has Nicaragua's neighbors worried: Ortega announced that the country is open to all and any tourist visitors from any country, without requiring visas. Costa Rica is concerned that international trafficking groups can now move people to other countries like Costa Rica and the US. Inside Costa Rica mentions Chinese and Russians, but readers of this blog know that Iranians are already heading to Nicaragua.

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Having been to Rio last December, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and his wife Carla Bruni are now in Mexico.

The visit, which started last Friday, has generated a fair amount of controversy since the couple started their stay in Mexico with two nights at a mansion in the exclusive resort of El Tamarindo. The mansion is owned by a friend of Mexican president Felipe Calderon. The UK's Mail estimates the cost of the stay at £45,000. As they did in Brazil, two naval vessels carried out patrols in the ocean, while helicopters flew overhead.

On Sunday, before the start of the official state visit, the couple toured Aztec ruins in Teotihuacán with Mexican President Felipe Calderón and his wife Margarita Zavala. Mexico's El Universal described the occasion as Calderón-Sarkozy: a meeting in the land of the gods, which contrasts with other tourists' annoyance at having the archeological site closed two hours ahead of schedule for the dignataries' photo-op.

The big story in both countries was the Florence Cassez case: Cassez was sentenced to sixty years in prison after having been arrested at her Mexican boyfriend's house. She claimed not to know that he was the leader of the Zodiacs kidnapping gang and that there were three hostages in the house. During Sarkozy's state visit on Monday the two governments announced that they would create a commission to study the case and make a report and recommendations in three weeks. This is a very sensitive case in Mexico because of increased public pressure to halt what is perceived as impunity by criminals in a country with the highest kidnapping rate in the world.

The trip was not simply a photo-op and an agreement on a legal issue. Sarkozy seeks to boost access of French companies to the region. During the state visit he addressed the Mexican Senate.

On the business front, Forbes and Bloomberg report

France’s security and defense company Thales will sign today a contract with Mexico City to develop a video-surveillance network aimed at curbing gang violence. Thales will jointly build the close-circuit television (CCTV) system with billionaire Carlos Slim’s Telmex Internacional SAB, according to French newspaper Le Monde.

"We are ready to receive Mexican equipment in French police laboratories. We are willing to send equipment to Mexico.

"We would like to help Mexico resolve this problem which causes so much distress such as insecurity."

The main subject of the discussion during the state visit was the upcoming G20 summit and the countries' response to the global economic crisis.

As the US apparently rethinks its NAFTA commitments, Mexico and France are not sitting still and are finding common ground. Mexico clearly wants to diversify its trade, 80% of which currently is with the US.

In other French news: Thursday Sarkozy announced that France is to return to NATO's military command.

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Yesterday the Senate approved the $410 billlion omnibus spending bill to fund most of the federal government for the remainder of the year:

In an important policy shift, the bill includes a loosening of restrictions on travel to and imports from Cuba that the Bush administration imposed. The issue proved explosive among supporters of the trade embargo. Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), the leader of the group, voiced strong objections last week on the chamber floor and withdrew his support for the underlying legislation, forcing Reid to delay a final vote from Thursday until last night.

But Menendez, along with Sens. Bill Nelson (D) and Mel Martinez (R), who are both from Florida, said they were reassured by a letter from Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner pledging that the Cuba provision would be interpreted narrowly, and the two Democrats supported the final bill.

The Miami Herald explains,

The budget bill, which already passed the House, creates a general travel license for Americans who want to travel to Cuba to cut agricultural and medical sales deals with the communist government. It also lets Cuba pay for goods on arrival -- instead of before the products leave U.S. ports -- and removes funding for enforcement of family travel restrictions enacted by former President George W. Bush.

Geithner wrote that the agricultural travel license would be limited to ''only a narrow class of businesses,'' which would have to report back on their trips. By law, he said, Cuba would still have to pay up front.

Left intact in the bill, which expires in October, is a measure that suspends enforcement of rules that say Cuban Americans can only visit immediate relatives once every three years. Travel to the island would still be illegal, but the department wouldn't be allowed to spend money trying to catch anyone doing it.

Geithner's letter is controversial:

* Senators Menendez, Nelson and Martinez were assured by Geithner that the new law will be interpreted so strictly as to be ineffective. If so, why pass it?

* Travel to Cuba by Americans will still be illegal but the government won't be trying to enforce the law. Then why the assurance that the new law will be strictly interpreted?

* According to the Miami Herald, when asked about the Geithner letter, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said: ``It's like a presidential signing statement, except it's not the president, and it's not a signing statement.''

* In view of that, why would the Treasury Department pay any attention to Geithner's letter in six months from now?

* Another question: why didn't Pres. Obama issue his own executive order?

Rep. José E. Serrano (D-N.Y.), who wrote the Cuba amendments in the bill, promised a "showdown", and warned that the law is not open to "creative interpretation."

Meanwhile, in Cuba, Cuban Official Rules Out Any Obama Preconditions for Improved Relations.

Stay tuned.

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Readers may recall that last Tuesday I wrote about Raúl Castro's House Cleaning. Raúl Castro replaced ten high-level posts in the Cuban government.

As I pointed out in that article, the changes came shortly after the release of the Lugar Report on Changing Cuba Policy, after French envoy Jack Lange's visit, and on the same week as the US Senate votes on the $450 billion omnibus bill

In 2003 the European Union imposed sanctions on Cuba following the arrest of 75 Cuban dissidents, of which 55 remain imprisoned. Without any concession on Cuba's part, the EU voted last June to lift the sanctions and restore aid, even when according to the BBC the sanctions did not restrict trade or investment.

Since this is the first time so many Cuban government officials had been replaced at once, the story has been covered by the international media:

Continue reading "The Cuban Cosmetic Change" »

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