The United Kingdom’s stunning vote to leave the European Union will surely disrupt many assumptions about European integration, borders, trade, political elites, the generational divide, and more.
The response needs to be as disruptive as the referendum result.
It is time to rethink what else could and should change to address the palpable anger of voters related to the dislocation of globalization, correct the failure of governments to deliver adequate services, stem the rise of intolerance, and stop the total breakdown of civility. The situation cries out for strong leadership - by the United States, and by the leaders of Europe. My candidate to seize the moment is Angela Merkel, who has shown moral courage as well as careful stewardship.
Anger clearly fueled the Brexit vote, and it is doing the same in our own election cycle. But one of the biggest surprises about Brexit was that so many Millennials supported Remain. Leaders around the world need to capture their excitement about globalization and make a concerted effort to get that population more engaged in the business of government, by integrating them into key roles and proving that the establishment can in fact change.
Meanwhile, the failure to address concerns from older generations about government dysfunction also stoked the fire. These voters are concerned about the economy, about events in Syria and the broader Middle East, and are questioning lifelong assumptions that their countries will protect them and assure that their children will be better off than they are. Our leaders must recognize this wake-up call. Many exciting ideas exist for how to help those adversely affected by our globalized world.
The first step is for government to recognize that it cannot fix the problem -- but it can help organize and spotlight some of the best ideas, like efforts to help individuals adjust their skills for new work. These efforts require public-private partnerships the likes of which we haven't seen before.
Agility is the name of the new game, economically and in foreign policy too. In the interim chaos - and Slovakia's assumption of the EU Presidency in a few short days does not provide much solace -- certain players will step in to take advantage of the power vacuum. Pressured by continuous loss of the territory under its control, the Islamic State may use this time to call on prepositioned fighters to carry out more attacks. In the medium term, we must also watch and be poised to address changes in ISIS’s strategy, including efforts to carry out new kinds of attacks -- attacks that are both physical and digital.
Thankfully, our intelligence relationships will continue to remain strong, but bureaucracy always threatens to get in the way - especially in times of uncertainty. The leaders of Europe need to assure their intelligence services that they have adequate legal authority to focus on stopping urgent plots and keep an eye on more strategic concerns.
Speaking of strategic concerns: If there ever was an opportunity to cause mischief and test additional boundaries, Russian President Vladimir Putin will try. We need a tough NATO now more than ever, and the upcoming NATO summit is an opportunity for the United States and our allies to ensure the treaty organization is ready for any eventuality.
Bad actors aren't the only ones to watch. Simmering border disputes could boil over and bring renewed instability in places like Northern Ireland. And ongoing mass migration problems could become even more difficult to manage than they already are.
We have strong relationships with the individual countries of the EU, but the United States can be an indispensable partner for all of Europe, binding the Western world together during this time of crisis.
Finally, intolerance and a loss of civility in our politics must be addressed. For that, we need good role models. Rather than berating the British for deciding to leave the European Union, we must push forward and promote our values together.
Britain's Conservative Party election this fall will likely coincide with America’s elections -- and there is no doubt that the two votes will share some identical themes. Indeed, there may be a boom-box effect by which candidates in both races align their messaging. Short-hand takeaway: Be vigilant, stay focused on key threats, and use the moment to reduce and not inflame anger.
I hope we accept the challenge. The future started a while ago, but the Brexit result means we all must now address it.