Nigerians this month are set to engage in a vote critical to their country's experiment in democratic rule. This year's elections will see voters choose a president and determine the makeup of the National Assembly. The elections were delayed for six weeks. Officials cited security concerns, though some argue the postponement was a strictly political choice. Whatever the case, Nigerians will head to the polls on March 28 - they will return two weeks later to vote for state governors and assemblies.
Nigeria's past is rife with military dictatorships and coups d'état, yet over the last decade the country has made considerable gains in establishing democratic institutions and traditions.
Successful or not, the Nigerian elections will resonate well beyond the country's borders. Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa, home to an estimated 170 million people. It is also the continent's largest economy, with a gross domestic product of $509 billion as of 2013. What happens in Nigeria impacts West Africa and the broader region.
Credible and peaceful elections in Nigeria will signal a move forward for stable democracy, setting a virtuous example in the region. This year's elections come amid expiring amnesty in the Niger Delta, a violent Islamist insurgency in the Northeast, and the shock of falling oil prices. Despite these and more endemic challenges such as paralyzing corruption, the Nigerian people continue to press ahead. Nigeria's elections in 2011 were deemed by international observers as an improvement to the previous two polls, but still they were messy. More than 800 people were killed in post-election violence.
Picks and priorities
Avoiding violence must remain a top priority. The two main candidates, incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan of the People's Democratic Party, or PDP, and Gen. Muhammadu Buhari of the coalition All Progressives Party, or APC, continue to poll neck-and-neck. Of course, competitive elections only strengthen democracies, but such competition requires maturity from political leaders and their supporters, who must accept the results if the polls are determined to be free and fair. Historically, democracies endure when power transitions peacefully from one democratically elected leader to another from an opposition party. If Buhari wins on March 28 or after a run-off election is conducted (a scenario that remains plausible given the strict requirements for victory established in the Nigerian Constitution), the election would prove an important step in Nigeria's political development.
Buhari is no newcomer to Nigeria's political scene. In December 1983 he led a successful coup, after which he ran the country until August 1985. He was removed from power in a subsequent military coup led by Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, who actually has endorsed Buhari in this year's presidential race.
Buhari has run for president three times (in 2003, 2007, and 2011), but he has yet to find success at the ballot box. However, the political landscape in Nigeria is decidedly different today.
Since 1999, the PDP has largely controlled the presidency and the National Assembly, as well a majority of the state governorships and Houses of Assembly. Yet the party's stranglehold on Nigerian politics is no longer a given. Under Jonathan's leadership, support for the PDP has significantly waned. Moreover, the APC opposition coalition formed in early 2013 gained significant momentum with the defection of numerous governors and 37 National Assembly representatives.
The partisan tables were balanced through PDP political maneuvering that earned them the support of several APC governors and representatives, but cleavages in the party were exposed in a very public way, leading many PDP supporters to wonder how strong the party really is. Questions continue to linger about the PDP's support network. The most recent cause for doubt came when Olusegun Obansanjo, former president of Nigeria and a foundling PDP member, tore up his PDP card.
Intra-party divisions are avidly reported by Nigerian media, usually in the context of a narrative loosely molded around the country's historic North-South divide - and even more simplistically around the country's regional religious identities. In fact Lagos State - situated firmly in the South - is an APC stronghold, and the Christian minority communities in the North hold significant political sway. Moreover, each candidate's running mate hails from a different religious background. Buhari, a Muslim, is running with Yemi Osinbajo, a Christian. President Jonathan, a Christian, is running with Vice President Namadi Sambo, a Muslim. Jonathan and Buhari both pull significant support from their respective regional bases in the South and the North.
Whatever the results, the Nigerian people must hold their leaders accountable. Winners must be allowed to govern, and losers must refrain from extra-electoral processes to seize power.
Nigeria has come a long way, and the political and economic choices that lie ahead require a credible leader with a mandate to govern. Democratic consolidation requires peaceful conditions to develop and flourish. That must start March 28 at the ballot box.
Charlotte Florance is a research associate in The Heritage Foundation's Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies.